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Ligue 1
Referee: S Frappart
Marseille
S S T S T
4–0
Full-time
Strasbourg
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Strasbourg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 50%
54%
46%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
43%
41%
Both score Ø 50%
49%
51%
Average goals
2,6
2,7
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%
17 Shots 10
11 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 3. · Strasbourg 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 37 25 8 4 +49 83
2 Monaco 37 20 8 9 +25 68
3 Marseille 37 20 8 9 +21 68
4 Rennes 37 20 5 12 +42 65
5 Nice 37 19 7 11 +15 64
6 Strasbourg 37 17 12 8 +21 63
7 Lens 37 17 10 10 +14 61
8 Lyon 37 16 11 10 +14 59
9 Nantes 37 15 9 13 +7 54
10 Lille 37 14 12 11 +0 54
11 Brest 37 13 9 15 -6 48
12 Reims 37 11 13 13 +0 46
13 Montpellier 37 12 7 18 -10 43
14 Angers 37 9 11 17 -13 38
15 Troyes 37 9 10 18 -16 37
16 Clermont 37 9 9 19 -30 36
17 Lorient 37 8 11 18 -28 35
18 Metz 37 6 13 18 -29 31
19 St Etienne 37 7 10 20 -35 31
20 Bordeaux 37 5 13 19 -41 28

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Strasbourg
1–0 Gerson
32′
Duje Ćaleta-Car 🟨
34′
Half-time 1–0
72′
🔁 H. Diallo
↦ K. Gameiro
72′
🔁 I. Sissoko
↦ S. Prcić
73′
🔁 J. Bellegarde
↦ J. Aholou
2–0 C. Ünder
A. Harit
73′
75′
🟨 Ibrahima Sissoko
85′
🔁 K. Fila
↦ A. Caci
85′
🔁 N. Kandil
↦ A. Thomasson
Pape Gueye 🟨
86′
3–0 Gerson
A. Milik
89′
S. Kolašinac 🔁
↦ P. Gueye
90′
C. Bakambu 🔁
↦ A. Milik
90′
Luis Henrique 🔁
↦ A. Harit
91′
Pol Lirola 🔁
↦ C. Ünder
91′
4–0 C. Bakambu
93′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Marseille

3-2-4-1
30 S. Mandanda G
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
14 Luan Peres D
21 V. Rongier M
8 Gerson M
17 C. Ünder F
7 A. Harit F
4 B. Kamara D
6 M. Guendouzi M
22 P. Gueye M
9 A. Milik F
Bench (9)
11 Luis Henrique
23 S. Kolašinac
13 C. Bakambu
29 Pol Lirola
26 O. Targhalline
16 Pau López
46 A. Benyahia-Tani
32 S. Ben Seghir
42 Y. Said M'Madi

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Strasbourg

5-3-2
1 M. Sels G
2 F. Guilbert D
24 A. Djiku D
22 G. Nyamsi D
19 A. Caci D
5 L. Perrin D
14 S. Prcić M
6 J. Aholou M
10 A. Thomasson M
9 K. Gameiro F
25 L. Ajorque F
Bench (9)
20 H. Diallo
27 I. Sissoko
17 J. Bellegarde
4 K. Fila
34 N. Kandil
29 I. Doukouré
23 M. Le Marchand
8 A. Waris
16 E. Kawashima

Coach: J. Stéphan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,05
U
3,58
B
3,59
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,74
U2,5
2,11
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Frappart · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.