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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Ajaccio

U S T U T

1–3

Full-time

Lille

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,0

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 18. · Lille 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Lens	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Clermont	3	2	0	1	-2	6
6	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Brest	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Rennes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Auxerre	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Monaco	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Lille	3	1	1	1	-3	4
13	Montpellier	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Nice	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Angers	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Reims	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Troyes	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Lille	2	1	0	1	-3	3
8	Clermont	2	1	0	1	-4	3
9	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Auxerre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Ajaccio	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Angers	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Monaco	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	Lens	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Clermont	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Brest	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Strasbourg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Nice	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Reims	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Ajaccio	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.