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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Toulouse

S U S S T

2–3

Full-time

Lyon

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

28%

36%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,43 xG 1,37

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Lyon 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	16	8	1	+35	+21.4	56
2	Brest	25	13	7	5	+16	+9.1	46
3	Monaco	25	13	6	6	+11	+5.3	45
4	Lille	25	11	9	5	+14	+12.8	42
5	Lens	25	12	6	7	+10	+3.5	42
6	Nice	25	11	7	7	+5	+9.0	40
7	Marseille	25	10	9	6	+14	+18.6	39
8	Rennes	25	9	9	7	+7	+7.8	36
9	Reims	25	10	5	10	-2	+4.7	35
10	Lyon	25	9	4	12	-11	-5.3	31
11	Toulouse	25	7	8	10	-6	-9.1	29
12	Montpellier	25	6	9	10	-5	-0.4	27
13	Le Havre	25	6	9	10	-6	-11.6	27
14	Strasbourg	25	6	8	11	-13	-5.3	26
15	Lorient	25	6	7	12	-14	-12.6	25
16	Nantes	25	7	4	14	-15	-11.3	25
17	Metz	25	6	5	14	-15	-15.8	23
18	Clermont	25	3	8	14	-25	-20.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	8	5	0	+17	+15.8	29
2	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
3	Lille	12	8	3	1	+17	+16.5	27
4	Brest	12	7	4	1	+12	+11.6	25
5	Nice	13	7	4	2	+8	+8.3	25
6	Lens	12	7	2	3	+8	+6.8	23
7	Rennes	13	6	3	4	+8	+10.7	21
8	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+7	+5.9	20
9	Le Havre	12	5	2	5	+2	+3.0	17
10	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	+4.8	17
11	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-4	-0.3	15
12	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-7	+0.2	15
13	Toulouse	12	3	5	4	+1	+3.1	14
14	Montpellier	13	2	8	3	+1	+6.5	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-4	-5.8	13
16	Nantes	13	3	3	7	-5	-3.4	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-4	-1.7	9
18	Clermont	12	1	4	7	-13	-7.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	13	7	4	2	+4	-0.7	25
3	Brest	13	6	3	4	+4	-2.5	21
4	Lens	13	5	4	4	+2	-3.3	19
5	Reims	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.1	18
6	Lyon	12	5	1	6	-4	-5.5	16
7	Rennes	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.9	15
8	Lille	13	3	6	4	-3	-3.7	15
9	Nice	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
10	Toulouse	13	4	3	6	-7	-12.2	15
11	Metz	13	4	2	7	-11	-14.1	14
12	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-6	-6.9	13
13	Nantes	12	4	1	7	-10	-7.8	13
14	Lorient	12	3	3	6	-10	-6.9	12
15	Strasbourg	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
16	Marseille	12	2	4	6	-3	+2.8	10
17	Le Havre	13	1	7	5	-8	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.