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Ligue 1

Referee: P Gaillouste

Lyon

U S T T T

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 11%

14%

Points per game

0,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,83 xG 1,55

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 18. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	3	1	+26	+16.0	36
2	Nice	15	9	5	1	+10	+7.3	32
3	Monaco	15	9	3	3	+11	+5.1	30
4	Lille	15	7	6	2	+8	+6.6	27
5	Brest	15	7	4	4	+4	+1.4	25
6	Lens	15	6	5	4	+4	+3.2	23
7	Reims	15	7	2	6	+0	+2.5	23
8	Marseille	14	5	5	4	+4	+10.7	20
9	Nantes	15	5	3	7	-6	-6.6	18
10	Strasbourg	15	4	5	6	-6	-2.9	17
11	Le Havre	15	3	7	5	-4	-6.5	16
12	Metz	15	4	4	7	-8	-10.4	16
13	Rennes	15	3	6	6	-1	+4.2	15
14	Montpellier	15	3	6	6	-3	+3.9	15
15	Toulouse	14	2	7	5	-4	-10.1	13
16	Lorient	14	2	6	6	-7	-9.1	12
17	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-12	-8.4	11
18	Lyon	14	1	4	9	-16	-7.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	1	1	+15	+8.0	19
2	Monaco	7	6	0	1	+11	+4.1	18
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+7	+4.2	18
4	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.0	17
5	Lille	7	5	1	1	+7	+7.4	16
6	Lens	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.8	14
7	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+4	+6.3	12
8	Brest	7	3	3	1	+4	+5.2	12
9	Nantes	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.8	12
10	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.0	12
11	Reims	7	4	0	3	+0	+3.7	12
12	Lorient	7	2	3	2	+0	-4.4	9
13	Montpellier	8	1	5	2	-1	+4.8	8
14	Le Havre	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
15	Toulouse	6	1	4	1	+2	-0.2	7
16	Metz	7	1	3	3	-1	-1.9	6
17	Clermont	8	1	2	5	-7	-3.5	5
18	Lyon	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.0	17
2	Nice	7	4	2	1	+3	+3.1	14
3	Brest	8	4	1	3	+0	-3.8	13
4	Monaco	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.9	12
5	Lille	8	2	5	1	+1	-0.8	11
6	Reims	8	3	2	3	+0	-1.2	11
7	Metz	8	3	1	4	-7	-8.5	10
8	Lens	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.6	9
9	Le Havre	8	1	5	2	-3	-9.5	8
10	Montpellier	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.9	7
11	Clermont	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.9	6
12	Toulouse	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.9	6
13	Nantes	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.8	6
14	Strasbourg	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.9	5
15	Lyon	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.5	4
16	Rennes	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.1	3
17	Lorient	7	0	3	4	-7	-4.7	3
18	Marseille	7	0	3	4	-7	+2.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.