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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Toulouse

S T T S U

3–1

Full-time

Lille

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

23%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,16 xG 0,59

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 15. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	16	5	1	+35	+20.5	53
2	Brest	23	12	7	4	+16	+8.8	43
3	Monaco	23	12	5	6	+10	+4.2	41
4	Nice	22	11	6	5	+7	+9.8	39
5	Lille	22	10	8	4	+15	+12.6	38
6	Lens	23	10	6	7	+6	+2.1	36
7	Rennes	22	9	7	6	+8	+10.7	34
8	Reims	22	9	4	9	-2	+3.6	31
9	Marseille	22	7	9	6	+5	+14.2	30
10	Lyon	23	8	4	11	-10	-5.5	28
11	Nantes	23	7	4	12	-11	-9.4	25
12	Strasbourg	23	6	7	10	-12	-4.4	25
13	Le Havre	22	5	9	8	-5	-10.5	24
14	Montpellier	22	5	8	9	-3	+1.7	23
15	Toulouse	22	5	8	9	-8	-10.2	23
16	Lorient	23	5	7	11	-13	-11.8	22
17	Metz	23	4	5	14	-18	-17.7	17
18	Clermont	22	3	7	12	-20	-18.8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	2	1	+19	+13.2	26
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Nice	11	7	3	1	+9	+8.7	24
4	Marseille	11	6	5	0	+12	+13.3	23
5	Brest	11	6	4	1	+11	+11.2	22
6	Rennes	12	6	3	3	+9	+11.3	21
7	Lens	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.6	20
8	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+7	+5.8	19
9	Reims	11	5	2	4	+0	+5.3	17
10	Strasbourg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
11	Lyon	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.4	15
12	Le Havre	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.8	14
13	Montpellier	12	2	7	3	+1	+6.6	13
14	Lorient	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.4	13
15	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.0	12
16	Toulouse	10	1	5	4	-2	+1.1	8
17	Clermont	11	1	4	6	-9	-5.4	7
18	Metz	11	1	3	7	-5	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+16	+7.3	27
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+3	-1.6	22
3	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	-2.3	21
4	Lens	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.5	16
5	Nice	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
6	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
7	Reims	11	4	2	5	-2	-1.7	14
8	Rennes	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.6	13
9	Lyon	11	4	1	6	-6	-6.8	13
10	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-8	-7.5	13
11	Lille	11	2	6	3	-2	-2.7	12
12	Metz	12	3	2	7	-13	-15.6	11
13	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
14	Le Havre	12	1	7	4	-7	-14.3	10
15	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
16	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-11	-7.5	9
17	Clermont	11	2	3	6	-11	-13.3	9
18	Marseille	11	1	4	6	-7	+0.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.