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Conference League
Referee: M Jug
Lille
S T S S U
1–1
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 9/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
44%
67%
Both score Ø 39%
44%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
0,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,84 xG 1,59
64% Possession 36%
13 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 6
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 11
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Mar -24 Sturm Graz – Lille 0–3

Match report

Lille Sturm Graz
1–0 Tiago Santos ⚽
H. Haraldsson
43′
Half-time 1–1
46′
⚽ M. Biereth 1–1
G. Wüthrich
A. Gomes 🔁
↦ H. Haraldsson
46′
J. David 🔁
↦ E. Zhegrova
46′
B. André 🔁
↦ N. Bentaleb
46′
46′
🔁 A. Prass
↦ O. Kiteishvili
46′
🔁 A. Camara
↦ M. Biereth
L. Yoro 🔁
↦ B. Diakité
61′
61′
🔁 D. Affengruber
↦ G. Wüthrich
68′
🔁 W. Bøving
↦ T. Horvat
Ismaily 🔁
↦ Tiago Santos
73′
79′
🔁 N. Geyrhofer
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovič
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lille

4-3-3
1 V. Mannone G
22 Tiago Santos D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
6 N. Bentaleb M
33 A. Bouaddi M
7 H. Haraldsson M
23 E. Zhegrova F
12 Y. Yazıcı F
10 R. Cabella F
Bench (12)
8 A. Gomes
9 J. David
21 B. André
15 L. Yoro
31 Ismaily
40 T. Negrel
30 L. Chevalier
17 Ivan Cavaleiro
36 O. Touré
38 I. Ferrah
20 I. Miramón
42 J. Bazié

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Sturm Graz

4-2-2-2
16 V. Jaroš G
2 M. Johnston D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
22 J. Gazibegović D
25 S. Hierländer M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
19 T. Horvat M
18 M. Biereth F
9 S. Włodarczyk F
Bench (12)
8 A. Prass
36 A. Camara
42 D. Affengruber
15 W. Bøving
35 N. Geyrhofer
45 C. Wiener-Pucher
28 D. Schnegg
38 L. Grgić
20 S. Jatta
14 Javi Serrano
21 S. Stückler
31 L. Marić

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Jug · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.