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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Paris SG

U S S T S

3–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 59%

82%

36%

Points per game

2,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

73%

36%

Both score Ø 59%

73%

45%

Average goals

3,9

2,2

Scored

3,0

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 1,39

73% Possession 27%

17 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Toulouse 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+23	+21.7	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+11	+14.5	26
3	Marseille	11	6	2	3	+9	-1.3	20
4	Lille	11	5	4	2	+7	+4.0	19
5	Lyon	11	5	3	3	+3	+4.4	18
6	Nice	11	4	5	2	+10	+6.4	17
7	Reims	11	5	2	4	+4	-3.0	17
8	Lens	11	4	5	2	+3	+3.8	17
9	Auxerre	11	5	1	5	+1	-2.5	16
10	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+2	+7.6	15
11	Strasbourg	11	3	4	4	-2	-4.0	13
12	Brest	12	4	1	7	-6	-9.2	13
13	Rennes	11	3	2	6	-5	-1.9	11
14	Nantes	11	2	4	5	-3	-3.9	10
15	Angers	11	2	4	5	-7	-7.4	10
16	St Etienne	11	3	1	7	-15	-9.3	10
17	Le Havre	11	3	0	8	-15	-7.8	9
18	Montpellier	11	2	1	8	-20	-11.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
2	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.7	14
3	Auxerre	5	4	0	1	+6	+3.9	12
4	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
5	Rennes	6	3	1	2	+4	+2.1	10
6	Brest	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
7	Lyon	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.6	10
8	Nice	5	2	3	0	+9	+5.4	9
9	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.4	9
10	Lille	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
11	Lens	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.4	8
12	Toulouse	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.4	8
13	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
14	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	-7	-1.6	7
15	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-10	-5.7	6
16	Nantes	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.9	5
17	Marseille	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.2	5
18	Angers	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	5	0	1	+12	-0.1	15
2	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.4	14
3	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.9	12
4	Lille	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.4	11
5	Reims	6	3	1	2	+4	-2.1	10
6	Lens	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.6	9
7	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
8	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
9	Toulouse	5	2	1	2	+2	+4.2	7
10	Angers	5	1	3	1	-1	-3.2	6
11	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.9	5
12	Auxerre	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.4	4
13	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
14	Brest	6	1	0	5	-9	-8.3	3
15	Strasbourg	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.9	2
16	Rennes	5	0	1	4	-9	-4.1	1
17	St Etienne	6	0	1	5	-16	-11.6	1
18	Montpellier	5	0	0	5	-13	-10.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.