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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Lille

T T U S S

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,61 xG 1,11

58% Possession 42%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.8	16
2	Monaco	6	5	1	0	+9	+9.2	16
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+8	-1.2	14
4	Reims	6	3	2	1	+2	-4.2	11
5	Lille	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.8	10
6	Lens	6	2	4	0	+3	+4.7	10
7	Nantes	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.2	9
8	Strasbourg	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.6	9
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	+8	+4.8	8
10	Rennes	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.0	7
11	Lyon	6	2	1	3	-4	-0.8	7
12	St Etienne	7	2	1	4	-12	-9.0	7
13	Brest	6	2	0	4	-5	-6.2	6
14	Auxerre	7	2	0	5	-6	-5.1	6
15	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.9	6
16	Toulouse	6	1	2	3	-3	+5.1	5
17	Montpellier	6	1	1	4	-11	-5.8	4
18	Angers	7	0	3	4	-8	-4.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.1	10
2	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.7	9
3	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.8	7
4	Strasbourg	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
5	Brest	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
6	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.1	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.7	6
8	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
9	Lens	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.4	5
10	Nice	2	1	1	0	+8	+4.7	4
11	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
12	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.4	4
13	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.7	4
14	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-1	+3.0	4
15	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.7	4
16	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.2	3
17	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.7	3
18	Angers	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	3	0	1	+6	-2.1	9
2	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	+5.1	7
3	Reims	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.5	7
4	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.2	6
5	Lille	3	2	0	1	+4	+5.2	6
6	Nantes	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
7	Lens	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.2	5
8	Nice	4	1	1	2	+0	+0.1	4
9	Lyon	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.0	4
10	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
11	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.2	2
12	Angers	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.7	2
13	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	-2	+2.0	1
14	St Etienne	4	0	1	3	-13	-9.7	1
15	Rennes	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.8	0
16	Auxerre	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
17	Brest	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Montpellier	3	0	0	3	-10	-6.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.