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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Toulouse

T T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Reims

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Reims

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

22%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

44%

78%

Both score Ø 73%

56%

89%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,88 xG 1,09

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 16. · Reims 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+21	+19.2	26
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.8	20
3	Lille	10	5	3	2	+7	+4.4	18
4	Marseille	9	5	2	2	+10	-1.9	17
5	Nice	10	4	4	2	+10	+6.0	16
6	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.9	15
7	Reims	9	4	2	3	+2	-4.2	14
8	Lens	10	3	5	2	+2	+2.2	14
9	Strasbourg	10	3	4	3	+0	-0.9	13
10	Brest	10	4	1	5	-3	-6.0	13
11	Rennes	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.0	11
12	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.5	10
13	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.8	10
14	Angers	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.9	10
15	St Etienne	10	3	1	6	-14	-8.8	10
16	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-1	+6.8	9
17	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-13	-8.0	6
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-21	-12.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
2	Strasbourg	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
3	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+3	+6.0	11
4	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
5	Brest	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.4	9
8	Nice	4	2	2	0	+9	+5.0	8
9	Lille	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
11	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
12	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
13	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
14	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.9	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.6	5
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-9	-3.1	4
18	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	0	1	+11	+0.0	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	+9.0	11
3	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.8	9
5	Lens	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.6	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
8	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.4	7
9	Angers	5	1	3	1	-1	-3.2	6
10	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.3	5
11	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.2	4
12	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
13	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
14	Strasbourg	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.9	2
15	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.7	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.