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2. Bundesliga
Referee: S Jablonski
Paderborn
T S T U U
3–2
Full-time
Nurnberg
S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Nurnberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
4,2
Scored
1,0
2,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,5
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 42%
42%
42%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
67%
58%
Both score Ø 63%
67%
58%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,6
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%
11 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paderborn 2. · Nurnberg 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hannover 12 7 1 4 +6 22
2 Paderborn 12 5 6 1 +5 21
3 Fortuna Dusseldorf 12 6 3 3 +5 21
4 Karlsruhe 12 5 5 2 +3 20
5 Hamburg 12 5 4 3 +9 19
6 Elversberg 12 5 4 3 +8 19
7 FC Koln 12 5 3 4 +4 18
8 Nurnberg 12 5 3 4 +4 18
9 Magdeburg 12 4 6 2 +3 18
10 Kaiserslautern 12 4 5 3 +2 17
11 Hertha 12 5 2 5 +0 17
12 Darmstadt 12 4 4 4 +3 16
13 Greuther Furth 12 3 4 5 -5 13
14 Schalke 04 12 3 3 6 -3 12
15 Braunschweig 12 3 3 6 -10 12
16 Preußen Münster 12 2 5 5 -4 11
17 Ulm 12 2 4 6 -3 10
18 Regensburg 12 2 1 9 -27 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paderborn Nurnberg
1–0 A. Grimaldi
F. Bilbija
6′
8′
Danilo Soares 1–1
M. Emreli
Felix Götze 🟨
21′
36′
🟨 Danilo Soares
Half-time 1–2
51′
S. Tzimas 1–2
O. Villadsen
Filip Bilbija ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
54′
2–2 R. Obermair
55′
59′
🔁 B. Yılmaz
↦ Danilo Soares
66′
🔁 N. Seidel
↦ O. Karafiát
L. Herrmann 🔁
↦ L. Engelns
70′
Santiago Castaneda 🟨
72′
Adriano Grimaldi 🟥
78′
78′
🟨 Finn Jeltsch
I. Ansah 🔁
↦ S. Michel
79′
86′
🟨 Berkay Yilmaz
D. Kinsombi 🔁
↦ F. Bilbija
90′
3–2 C. Brackelmann
A. Zehnter
96′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Paderborn

3-4-2-1
30 M. Schubert G
25 T. Scheller D
20 F. Götze D
4 C. Brackelmann D
23 R. Obermair M
46 L. Engelns M
5 S. Castañeda M
32 A. Zehnter M
11 S. Michel F
7 F. Bilbija F
39 A. Grimaldi F
Bench (9)
19 L. Herrmann
29 I. Ansah
8 D. Kinsombi
1 P. Boevink
21 A. Bäuerle
9 M. Baur
17 L. Curda
42 A. Sanchez
10 K. Kostons

Coach: L. Kwasniok

Nurnberg

3-4-3
1 J. Reichert G
4 F. Jeltsch D
31 R. Knoche D
44 O. Karafiát D
2 O. Villadsen M
20 C. Jander M
17 J. Castrop M
3 Danilo Soares M
10 J. Justvan F
30 M. Emreli F
9 S. Tzimas F
Bench (9)
21 B. Yılmaz
33 N. Seidel
18 R. Lubach
23 J. Serra
26 C. Mathenia
35 S. Joachims
6 F. Flick
32 T. Janisch
7 F. Pick

Coach: M. Klose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,94
U
3,81
B
3,57
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,64
U2,5
2,25
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Jablonski · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.