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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Paris SG
U S U S S
1–2
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
3,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,09 xG 0,67
71% Possession 29%
22 Shots 4
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 0
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Paris SG Ath Madrid
1–0 W. Zaïre-Emery ⚽
O. Dembélé
14′
18′
⚽ N. Molina 1–1
Half-time 1–1
60′
🔁 Reinildo
↦ Javi Galán
60′
🔁 Koke
↦ R. De Paul
60′
🔁 Rodrigo Riquelme
↦ G. Simeone
Fabián Ruiz 🔁
↦ João Neves
67′
Lee Kang-In 🔁
↦ Marco Asensio
67′
67′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ J. Alvarez
R. Kolo Muani 🔁
↦ W. Zaïre-Emery
73′
78′
🔁 Samuel Lino
↦ C. Gallagher
87′
🟨 Ángel Correa
D. Doué 🔁
↦ O. Dembélé
90′
93′
⚽ Á. Correa 1–2
A. Griezmann
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 Nuno Mendes D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
87 João Neves M
10 O. Dembélé F
11 Marco Asensio F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (10)
8 Fabián Ruiz
19 Lee Kang-In
23 R. Kolo Muani
14 D. Doué
42 Y. Zague
35 Beraldo
39 M. Safonov
37 M. Škriniar
24 S. Mayulu
80 Arnau Tenas

Coach: Luis Enrique

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
16 N. Molina D
20 A. Witsel D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (11)
23 Reinildo
6 Koke
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
10 Á. Correa
12 Samuel Lino
43 G. Spina
29 Javi Serrano
31 Antonio Gomis
27 I. Kostis
1 J. Musso
9 A. Sørloth

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.