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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Marseille

S S T U S

0–3

Full-time

Paris SG

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 69%

63%

75%

Points per game

2,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

75%

Both score Ø 76%

63%

88%

Average goals

3,6

4,1

Scored

2,6

3,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+2,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,22 xG 3,10

25% Possession 75%

5 Shots 19

1 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 2

2 Offside 8

4 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+17	+14.3	20
2	Monaco	9	6	2	1	+9	+8.8	20
3	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+13	+1.0	17
4	Lille	9	5	2	2	+7	+4.0	17
5	Lens	9	3	5	1	+3	+4.2	14
6	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+2	+4.3	14
7	Reims	9	4	2	3	+2	-4.2	14
8	Nice	9	3	4	2	+9	+5.5	13
9	Strasbourg	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.3	13
10	Brest	9	4	1	4	-2	-5.5	13
11	Rennes	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.0	11
12	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.5	10
13	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.8	10
14	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-1	+6.8	9
15	Angers	9	1	4	4	-6	-4.0	7
16	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-16	-10.9	7
17	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-13	-8.0	6
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-21	-12.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.2	12
2	Strasbourg	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
3	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+4	+5.1	11
4	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
5	Brest	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
6	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	Nice	4	2	2	0	+9	+5.0	8
8	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
9	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
10	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
11	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
12	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
13	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.6	5
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-9	-3.1	4
18	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	0	1	+11	+0.0	12
2	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
3	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.8	9
4	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.4	9
5	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.1	8
6	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.4	7
7	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.2	7
8	Nice	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.5	5
9	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.3	5
10	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.2	4
11	Angers	4	0	3	1	-2	-2.3	3
12	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
13	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
14	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
15	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.7	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.