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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Paris SG

S T U U S

3–1

Full-time

Lyon

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,8

2,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 61%

71%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,6

1,9

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,88 xG 1,46

68% Possession 32%

13 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Lyon 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+26	+25.7	34
2	Marseille	15	9	3	3	+14	+0.3	30
3	Monaco	15	9	3	3	+12	+16.1	30
4	Lille	15	7	6	2	+10	+7.0	27
5	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	+7.2	25
6	Nice	15	6	6	3	+9	+7.7	24
7	Lens	15	6	6	3	+5	+7.4	24
8	Auxerre	15	6	3	6	+0	-8.2	21
9	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	+0	+8.2	21
10	Reims	15	5	5	5	+2	-4.2	20
11	Brest	15	6	1	8	-3	-8.8	19
12	Rennes	15	5	2	8	+0	+0.5	17
13	Strasbourg	15	4	5	6	-2	-7.4	17
14	Nantes	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.0	14
15	Angers	15	3	4	8	-12	-6.7	13
16	St Etienne	15	4	1	10	-22	-15.2	13
17	Le Havre	15	4	0	11	-18	-11.0	12
18	Montpellier	15	2	3	10	-23	-12.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Auxerre	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.4	17
3	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+6	+10.4	17
4	Rennes	8	5	1	2	+11	+5.6	16
5	Brest	8	5	1	2	+8	+1.3	16
6	Nice	7	4	3	0	+11	+8.2	15
7	Lille	7	4	2	1	+4	+1.6	14
8	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.5	14
9	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
10	Strasbourg	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.4	12
11	St Etienne	7	4	0	3	+0	+0.5	12
12	Lens	7	3	2	2	+1	+6.1	11
13	Marseille	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.5	9
14	Reims	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.3	9
15	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	-7	-1.5	9
16	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.8	8
17	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-14	-7.8	6
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-9	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	7	0	1	+16	+0.7	21
2	Paris SG	7	4	3	0	+10	+13.7	15
3	Lille	8	3	4	1	+6	+5.3	13
4	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.7	13
5	Lens	8	3	4	1	+4	+1.4	13
6	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.9	12
7	Reims	7	3	2	2	+4	-1.8	11
8	Nice	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.6	9
9	Angers	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.2	9
10	Toulouse	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.7	7
11	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.2	6
12	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-6	-8.8	6
13	Strasbourg	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.0	5
14	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
15	Brest	7	1	0	6	-11	-10.1	3
16	Rennes	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.1	1
17	St Etienne	8	0	1	7	-22	-15.8	1
18	Montpellier	7	0	0	7	-16	-10.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.