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Serie B
Referee: F La Penna
Spezia
S S S U U
0–1
Full-time
Catanzaro
U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Catanzaro
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,7
This season — Serie B · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 41%
50%
31%
Points per game
1,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
38%
42%
Both score Ø 50%
42%
58%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%
20 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
20 Free kicks against 21
5 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Spezia 3. · Catanzaro 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sassuolo 27 19 5 3 +33 62
2 Pisa 27 16 7 4 +19 55
3 Spezia 26 13 11 2 +23 50
4 Cremonese 27 11 8 8 +10 41
5 Catanzaro 26 8 15 3 +8 39
6 Juve Stabia 27 10 9 8 +0 39
7 Bari 27 8 13 6 +4 37
8 Cesena 27 10 7 10 +0 37
9 Modena 27 7 13 7 +2 34
10 Palermo 26 8 8 10 +2 32
11 Carrarese 27 8 7 12 -9 31
12 Cittadella 27 8 7 12 -16 31
13 Reggiana 27 7 9 11 -5 30
14 Brescia 26 6 11 9 -5 29
15 Sampdoria 27 6 11 10 -7 29
16 Mantova 27 6 11 10 -9 29
17 Sudtirol 26 8 4 14 -12 28
18 Cosenza 26 5 10 11 -10 25
19 Salernitana 26 6 7 13 -11 25
20 Frosinone 26 4 11 11 -17 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Spezia Catanzaro
Filippo Bandinelli 🟨
1′
Francesco Pio Esposito 🟨
14′
Francesco Pio Esposito ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
14′
Salvatore Esposito 🟨
17′
17′
🟨 Federico Bonini
Petko Hristov 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
G. Lapadula 🔁
↦ G. Di Serio
46′
58′
🟨 Mario Šitum
61′
🟨 Nicolò Brighenti
Gianluca Lapadula 🟥
66′
Gianluca Lapadula ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
66′
70′
🔁 F. Pittarello
↦ A. La Mantia
70′
🔁 Matias Antonini
↦ N. Brighenti
R. Kouda 🔁
↦ D. Degli Innocenti
73′
75′
F. Pittarello 0–1
R. Pagano
79′
🟨 Marco Pompetti
L. Vignali 🔁
↦ A. Reca
79′
P. Candelari 🔁
↦ F. Bandinelli
79′
81′
🔁 T. Cassandro
↦ M. Šitum
81′
🔁 R. Ilie
↦ M. Pompetti
Luca Vignali 🟨
84′
A. Čolak 🔁
↦ A. Matějů
86′
86′
🔁 M. Coulibaly
↦ P. Iemmello
94′
🟥 Giacomo Quagliata
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Spezia

3-5-2
23 L. Chichizola G
2 P. Wiśniewski D
55 P. Hristov D
37 A. Matějů D
13 A. Reca M
6 D. Degli Innocenti M
5 S. Esposito M
25 F. Bandinelli M
31 G. Aurelio M
9 F. Esposito F
20 G. Di Serio F
Bench (12)
10 G. Lapadula
80 R. Kouda
32 L. Vignali
36 P. Candelari
17 A. Čolak
4 Salvador Ferrer
82 H. Djankpata
11 D. Falcinelli
65 S. Giorgeschi
44 M. Benvenuto
8 Á. Nagy
66 S. Gori

Coach: L. D'Angelo

Catanzaro

3-5-2
22 M. Pigliacelli G
23 N. Brighenti D
14 S. Scognamillo D
6 F. Bonini D
92 M. Šitum M
21 M. Pompetti M
10 J. Petriccione M
24 R. Pagano M
3 G. Quagliata M
19 A. La Mantia F
9 P. Iemmello F
Bench (12)
90 F. Pittarello
4 Matias Antonini
84 T. Cassandro
8 R. Ilie
80 M. Coulibaly
61 F. Maiolo
29 D. Seck
25 L. Gelmi
99 E. Borrelli
28 T. Biasci
45 N. Buso
82 C. Corradi

Coach: F. Caserta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,59
U
3,80
B ✓
5,47
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,93
U2,5 ✓
1,85
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F La Penna · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.