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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Newcastle

S T S S T

4–3

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

4,3

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 52%

48%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

64%

52%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

2,91 xG 1,79

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 8. · Nott'm Forest 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	18	7	1	+36	+35.6	61
2	Arsenal	26	15	8	3	+28	+19.6	53
3	Nott'm Forest	25	14	5	6	+12	+3.6	47
4	Man City	25	13	5	7	+17	+11.7	44
5	Bournemouth	26	12	7	7	+14	+13.8	43
6	Chelsea	26	12	7	7	+12	+13.8	43
7	Aston Villa	27	11	9	7	-2	+5.1	42
8	Newcastle	25	12	5	8	+9	+10.3	41
9	Brighton	26	10	10	6	+4	+0.9	40
10	Fulham	26	10	9	7	+3	+7.0	39
11	Brentford	26	11	4	11	+5	+0.7	37
12	Tottenham	26	10	3	13	+15	+0.4	33
13	Crystal Palace	26	8	9	9	-1	+2.5	33
14	Everton	26	7	10	9	-4	-4.3	31
15	Man United	26	8	6	12	-7	-5.2	30
16	West Ham	26	8	6	12	-17	-10.1	30
17	Wolves	26	6	4	16	-18	-12.6	22
18	Ipswich	26	3	8	15	-30	-29.0	17
19	Leicester	26	4	5	17	-34	-26.5	17
20	Southampton	26	2	3	21	-42	-37.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	+14.6	29
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
4	Man City	12	8	2	2	+13	+11.6	26
5	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
6	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+7	+11.0	22
8	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
9	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+6	+5.2	20
10	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
11	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
12	Brighton	12	4	6	2	+3	+3.0	18
13	Tottenham	13	5	2	6	+5	+0.9	17
14	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
15	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-11	-7.5	14
16	Crystal Palace	13	2	5	6	-9	+1.1	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	9	5	0	+20	+20.9	32
2	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.1	25
3	Nott'm Forest	13	7	2	4	+0	-2.7	23
4	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
5	Bournemouth	13	6	4	3	+7	+5.8	22
6	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
7	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
8	Newcastle	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.0	21
9	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
10	Man City	13	5	3	5	+4	+0.1	18
11	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
12	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
14	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
15	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
16	Everton	12	3	4	5	-7	-5.5	13
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	12	2	4	6	-10	-18.1	10
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.