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Ligue 1

Referee: G Paradis

Toulouse

U T U T S

1–0

Full-time

Lorient

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,65 xG 0,40

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Lorient 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	27	19	2	6	+30	+19.9	59
2	Paris SG	25	18	3	4	+32	+29.3	57
3	Marseille	26	15	4	7	+20	+10.8	49
4	Lyon	26	14	5	7	+13	+8.2	47
5	Lille	26	13	5	8	+7	+10.3	44
6	Monaco	26	13	4	9	+8	+6.7	43
7	Rennes	26	12	7	7	+6	-1.9	43
8	Strasbourg	26	10	7	9	+9	+9.3	37
9	Lorient	26	9	10	7	-3	-1.3	37
10	Brest	26	10	6	10	-2	-0.5	36
11	Toulouse	26	9	7	10	+5	+3.5	34
12	Angers	27	9	5	13	-13	-18.4	32
13	Paris FC	26	6	10	10	-12	-13.1	28
14	Le Havre	26	6	9	11	-12	-10.7	27
15	Nice	26	7	6	13	-16	-9.4	27
16	Auxerre	26	4	7	15	-17	-8.2	19
17	Nantes	25	4	5	16	-20	-12.8	17
18	Metz	26	3	4	19	-35	-21.8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	0	2	+22	+16.9	36
2	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
3	Marseille	13	9	3	1	+18	+9.6	30
4	Lyon	12	9	1	2	+12	+9.7	28
5	Monaco	14	9	1	4	+10	+8.9	28
6	Lorient	13	7	5	1	+7	+4.7	26
7	Strasbourg	13	7	3	3	+12	+12.6	24
8	Rennes	13	7	3	3	+10	+6.0	24
9	Brest	13	7	3	3	+7	+8.8	24
10	Lille	13	7	3	3	+6	+8.4	24
11	Le Havre	14	5	6	3	+3	+2.0	21
12	Angers	13	6	2	5	+1	-4.4	20
13	Toulouse	13	4	5	4	+3	+5.3	17
14	Nice	13	4	5	4	-4	-0.4	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	13	3	3	7	-5	+1.2	12
17	Metz	13	2	3	8	-10	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	13	2	2	9	-11	-6.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	13	7	2	4	+8	+2.9	23
3	Lille	13	6	2	5	+1	+1.9	20
4	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
5	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+1	-1.6	19
6	Rennes	13	5	4	4	-4	-8.0	19
7	Toulouse	13	5	2	6	+2	-1.8	17
8	Monaco	12	4	3	5	-2	-2.2	15
9	Paris FC	14	3	6	5	-5	-9.1	15
10	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-3	-3.2	13
11	Brest	13	3	3	7	-9	-9.3	12
12	Angers	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.0	12
13	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-10	-6.0	11
14	Nice	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.9	10
15	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
16	Auxerre	13	1	4	8	-12	-9.4	7
17	Le Havre	12	1	3	8	-15	-12.7	6
18	Metz	13	1	1	11	-25	-18.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.