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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Lens

S S T U U

3–0

Full-time

Metz

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

2,8

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

71%

13%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

0,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,75 xG 0,40

52% Possession 48%

24 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 2. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	18	3	4	+32	+29.3	57
2	Lens	24	17	2	5	+24	+15.9	53
3	Marseille	25	14	4	7	+19	+10.3	46
4	Lyon	24	14	3	7	+13	+7.7	45
5	Monaco	25	12	4	9	+6	+5.9	40
6	Lille	24	12	4	8	+6	+9.4	40
7	Rennes	24	11	7	6	+3	-1.2	40
8	Strasbourg	25	10	6	9	+9	+8.7	36
9	Brest	24	9	6	9	-2	+0.1	33
10	Lorient	24	8	9	7	-4	-1.2	33
11	Angers	25	9	5	11	-7	-15.8	32
12	Toulouse	25	8	7	10	+4	+3.6	31
13	Le Havre	24	6	8	10	-10	-10.1	26
14	Paris FC	24	6	8	10	-12	-12.3	26
15	Nice	24	6	6	12	-14	-10.3	24
16	Auxerre	25	4	7	14	-16	-7.7	19
17	Nantes	25	4	5	16	-20	-12.8	17
18	Metz	24	3	4	17	-31	-19.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
2	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
3	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.1	27
4	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+8	+8.1	25
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
7	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.9	23
8	Lorient	12	6	5	1	+6	+4.5	23
9	Lille	12	7	2	3	+6	+8.2	23
10	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
11	Angers	12	6	2	4	+3	-3.6	20
12	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
13	Toulouse	13	4	5	4	+3	+5.3	17
14	Nice	12	4	5	3	+0	-0.6	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	13	3	3	7	-5	+1.2	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	13	2	2	9	-11	-6.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	12	7	2	3	+9	+3.2	23
3	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
4	Lyon	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.9	18
5	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
6	Rennes	12	4	4	4	-8	-7.8	16
7	Monaco	12	4	3	5	-2	-2.2	15
8	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
9	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-3	-3.2	13
10	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
11	Brest	12	3	3	6	-7	-8.5	12
12	Angers	13	3	3	7	-10	-12.2	12
13	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-10	-5.7	10
14	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
15	Auxerre	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.9	7
16	Nice	12	2	1	9	-14	-9.7	7
17	Le Havre	11	1	3	7	-13	-12.5	6
18	Metz	12	1	1	10	-22	-16.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.