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Eredivisie

Referee: R Dieperink

Ajax

U S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 53%

77%

28%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

57%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

59%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,21 xG 1,06

66% Possession 34%

27 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Sparta Rotterdam 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	30	23	4	3	+36	+28.8	73
2	PSV Eindhoven	30	21	4	5	+55	+40.4	67
3	Feyenoord	30	18	8	4	+36	+24.2	62
4	Utrecht	31	18	8	5	+19	+4.1	62
5	Go Ahead Eagles	29	13	7	9	+6	+10.4	46
6	Twente	28	12	9	7	+11	+12.7	45
7	AZ Alkmaar	28	11	8	9	+5	+11.3	41
8	Heerenveen	29	10	7	12	-7	-2.2	37
9	For Sittard	30	10	6	14	-15	-6.0	36
10	Groningen	30	9	8	13	-13	-8.6	35
11	Heracles	30	8	11	11	-15	-15.5	35
12	Sparta Rotterdam	29	8	10	11	-3	+2.0	34
13	Nijmegen	28	9	6	13	+1	+1.4	33
14	NAC Breda	30	8	8	14	-18	-16.2	32
15	Zwolle	30	7	10	13	-13	-21.4	31
16	Willem II	30	6	6	18	-20	-26.7	24
17	Waalwijk	30	4	7	19	-27	-20.5	19
18	Almere City	30	4	7	19	-38	-18.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	14	12	2	0	+25	+19.6	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+34	+25.0	36
3	Feyenoord	15	10	3	2	+19	+15.1	33
4	Go Ahead Eagles	15	9	4	2	+12	+13.8	31
5	Heerenveen	15	8	6	1	+12	+7.6	30
6	Utrecht	16	9	2	5	+4	+6.6	29
7	Twente	14	8	4	2	+12	+12.0	28
8	Groningen	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.5	26
9	Heracles	15	6	7	2	+6	+4.4	25
10	NAC Breda	15	6	5	4	+1	+0.6	23
11	Zwolle	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.3	21
12	For Sittard	15	7	0	8	-8	+1.8	21
13	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+9	+6.6	20
14	AZ Alkmaar	13	5	3	5	+1	+10.6	18
15	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	6	5	+0	+4.8	18
16	Willem II	15	3	3	9	-5	-10.7	12
17	Waalwijk	15	3	3	9	-10	-6.9	12
18	Almere City	14	2	3	9	-20	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	16	11	2	3	+11	+9.2	35
2	Utrecht	15	9	6	0	+15	-2.5	33
3	PSV Eindhoven	15	10	1	4	+21	+15.3	31
4	Feyenoord	15	8	5	2	+17	+9.1	29
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.7	23
6	Twente	14	4	5	5	-1	+0.7	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	3	7	-6	-3.3	15
9	For Sittard	15	3	6	6	-7	-7.9	15
10	Nijmegen	13	4	1	8	-8	-5.2	13
11	Willem II	15	3	3	9	-15	-16.0	12
12	Zwolle	15	1	7	7	-15	-17.1	10
13	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-18	-16.1	10
14	Heracles	15	2	4	9	-21	-20.0	10
15	NAC Breda	15	2	3	10	-19	-16.8	9
16	Groningen	15	2	3	10	-21	-12.1	9
17	Waalwijk	15	1	4	10	-17	-13.6	7
18	Heerenveen	14	2	1	11	-19	-9.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.