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Eredivisie

Referee: S Mulder

Ajax

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Willem II

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 45%

78%

11%

Points per game

2,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

78%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,1

3,3

Scored

3,3

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

27 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 1

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Willem II 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	18	14	2	2	+46	44
2	PSV Eindhoven	19	13	4	2	+26	43
3	Vitesse	19	13	2	4	+16	41
4	AZ Alkmaar	19	10	7	2	+16	37
5	Feyenoord	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Groningen	18	10	3	5	+6	33
7	Twente	19	8	5	6	+8	29
8	Heerenveen	19	6	7	6	+1	25
9	Utrecht	17	6	7	4	+0	25
10	Heracles	19	6	4	9	-8	22
11	For Sittard	19	6	4	9	-9	22
12	VVV Venlo	19	6	4	9	-14	22
13	Sparta Rotterdam	18	6	3	9	-3	21
14	Zwolle	19	4	9	6	-7	21
15	Waalwijk	19	3	5	11	-17	14
16	Den Haag	19	2	5	12	-28	11
17	Willem II	18	2	4	12	-18	10
18	FC Emmen	19	0	6	13	-30	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	8	0	1	+15	24
3	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+20	22
4	Groningen	10	5	3	2	+5	18
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Utrecht	9	4	4	1	+3	16
7	Feyenoord	7	4	2	1	+7	14
8	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+4	14
9	Heracles	9	4	1	4	+5	13
10	VVV Venlo	10	3	3	4	-13	12
11	Twente	10	3	2	5	-1	11
12	Zwolle	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	For Sittard	9	2	2	5	-6	8
15	Waalwijk	10	1	4	5	-7	7
16	Willem II	9	2	1	6	-8	7
17	Den Haag	9	0	3	6	-12	3
18	FC Emmen	10	0	3	7	-17	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+26	22
2	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	5	0	+9	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Feyenoord	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Twente	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Vitesse	10	5	1	4	+3	16
7	Groningen	8	5	0	3	+1	15
8	For Sittard	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	0	4	-1	12
10	Heerenveen	10	2	5	3	-3	11
11	VVV Venlo	9	3	1	5	-1	10
12	Zwolle	9	2	4	3	-5	10
13	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-3	9
14	Heracles	10	2	3	5	-13	9
15	Den Haag	10	2	2	6	-16	8
16	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-10	7
17	Willem II	9	0	3	6	-10	3
18	FC Emmen	9	0	3	6	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.