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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

AZ Alkmaar

S T S U S

2–1

Full-time

Ajax

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 59%

46%

71%

Points per game

1,5

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

62%

57%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,96 xG 0,28

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 8. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	0	1	+44	+23.4	42
2	Ajax	14	10	3	1	+17	+10.5	33
3	Feyenoord	15	9	5	1	+19	+15.9	32
4	Utrecht	14	10	2	2	+7	-1.9	32
5	Twente	15	8	4	3	+10	+11.8	28
6	NAC Breda	15	7	1	7	-6	-5.6	22
7	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	3	6	+2	+10.6	21
8	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	2	5	+3	+4.9	20
9	For Sittard	15	5	4	6	-4	+0.4	19
10	Nijmegen	15	5	1	9	+2	+3.2	16
11	Willem II	14	4	4	6	-1	-10.2	16
12	Zwolle	15	4	4	7	-9	-12.6	16
13	Groningen	15	4	4	7	-10	-10.8	16
14	Heerenveen	13	4	3	6	-5	-3.3	15
15	Heracles	15	3	5	7	-12	-11.0	14
16	Sparta Rotterdam	15	2	5	8	-10	+0.8	11
17	Waalwijk	15	1	3	11	-22	-15.6	6
18	Almere City	14	1	3	10	-25	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+26	+13.5	21
2	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+12	+8.1	19
3	Twente	7	4	3	0	+9	+10.1	15
4	Heerenveen	7	4	3	0	+8	+4.6	15
5	NAC Breda	7	5	0	2	+3	+1.0	15
6	Utrecht	7	5	0	2	+0	+1.2	15
7	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	2	2	+7	+10.7	14
8	Feyenoord	7	4	2	1	+5	+8.1	14
9	Groningen	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.3	12
10	For Sittard	7	4	0	3	+2	+3.2	12
11	Zwolle	7	4	0	3	+1	-1.7	12
12	Nijmegen	8	3	1	4	+6	+6.8	10
13	Heracles	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.6	10
14	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-2.5	8
15	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.8	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	8	0	4	4	-7	+3.7	4
17	Waalwijk	8	1	1	6	-9	-7.1	4
18	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-15	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	+9.9	21
2	Feyenoord	8	5	3	0	+14	+7.8	18
3	Utrecht	7	5	2	0	+7	-3.1	17
4	Ajax	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.5	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.0	13
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.7	13
7	Willem II	7	2	2	3	-2	-7.7	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.0	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.1	7
10	For Sittard	8	1	4	3	-6	-2.8	7
11	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.6	7
12	Nijmegen	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.6	6
13	Zwolle	8	0	4	4	-10	-10.9	4
14	Heracles	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.3	4
15	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-14	-10.5	4
16	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-10	-7.7	2
17	Waalwijk	7	0	2	5	-13	-8.4	2
18	Heerenveen	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.