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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Groningen

U T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 31%

22%

39%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 39%

39%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,72 xG 0,91

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 15. · Heerenveen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	16	1	3	+45	+27.8	49
2	Ajax	19	14	3	2	+24	+15.1	45
3	Utrecht	20	12	5	3	+7	-0.0	41
4	Feyenoord	19	10	6	3	+18	+19.3	36
5	Twente	18	10	4	4	+15	+15.7	34
6	Go Ahead Eagles	19	9	4	6	+7	+11.2	31
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+5	+6.8	28
8	For Sittard	19	7	4	8	-6	-1.1	25
9	NAC Breda	20	8	1	11	-10	-10.6	25
10	Heerenveen	18	7	3	8	-6	-3.8	24
11	Nijmegen	19	7	2	10	+3	+5.3	23
12	Willem II	19	6	5	8	-2	-15.2	23
13	Zwolle	19	5	5	9	-9	-15.4	20
14	Heracles	19	4	7	8	-13	-14.4	19
15	Groningen	18	4	5	9	-13	-10.5	17
16	Sparta Rotterdam	19	2	8	9	-12	-0.8	14
17	Almere City	19	2	4	13	-29	-13.7	10
18	Waalwijk	19	1	5	13	-24	-15.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	9	1	0	+30	+15.8	28
2	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Go Ahead Eagles	10	6	2	2	+9	+12.0	20
5	Heerenveen	9	5	3	1	+7	+2.4	18
6	NAC Breda	10	6	0	4	+1	-0.9	18
7	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
8	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	-3	+3.6	17
9	Zwolle	10	5	0	5	+1	-3.4	15
10	For Sittard	9	5	0	4	+0	+2.5	15
11	Nijmegen	10	4	2	4	+9	+8.1	14
12	Groningen	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.7	13
13	Willem II	10	3	3	4	+3	-4.2	12
14	Heracles	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.9	12
15	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
16	Almere City	10	2	1	7	-16	-3.5	7
17	Waalwijk	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.0	5
18	Sparta Rotterdam	10	0	5	5	-9	+1.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	10	7	3	0	+10	-3.7	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	0	3	+15	+11.9	21
3	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.0	20
4	Feyenoord	10	5	4	1	+11	+8.4	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	3	2	+5	+1.3	18
6	Twente	9	4	1	4	+0	+2.5	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
8	Willem II	9	3	2	4	-5	-11.0	11
9	For Sittard	10	2	4	4	-6	-3.6	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.9	9
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	NAC Breda	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
13	Heracles	9	2	1	6	-13	-12.5	7
14	Heerenveen	9	2	0	7	-13	-6.2	6
15	Zwolle	9	0	5	4	-10	-12.0	5
16	Groningen	9	1	1	7	-17	-11.2	4
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3
18	Waalwijk	10	0	3	7	-15	-9.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.