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Super League

Referee: F San

Winterthur

U T U T U

2–3

Full-time

Lugano

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

16%

47%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

47%

74%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,53 xG 2,05

32% Possession 68%

9 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

0 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Lugano 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	19	9	5	5	+6	+0.5	32
2	Basel	19	9	4	6	+21	+13.8	31
3	Lausanne	19	9	4	6	+9	+11.3	31
4	Servette	20	8	7	5	+2	-0.1	31
5	Luzern	19	8	6	5	+3	+1.4	30
6	Zurich	19	8	6	5	+0	-2.8	30
7	St. Gallen	19	6	8	5	+6	-5.9	26
8	Sion	19	7	5	7	+3	+8.8	26
9	Young Boys	20	6	7	7	-4	+3.0	25
10	Grasshoppers	20	4	7	9	-9	-4.0	19
11	Yverdon	20	4	6	10	-13	-12.1	18
12	Winterthur	19	3	5	11	-24	-13.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lausanne	10	7	1	2	+11	+9.0	22
2	Lugano	10	6	2	2	+7	+3.6	20
3	Servette	10	5	4	1	+4	+2.6	19
4	Young Boys	10	5	3	2	+4	+0.5	18
5	Sion	10	4	4	2	+7	+12.1	16
6	Basel	9	5	1	3	+7	+11.1	16
7	Zurich	10	4	4	2	+2	-2.3	16
8	St. Gallen	9	3	5	1	+7	+0.4	14
9	Luzern	9	4	2	3	+2	+5.1	14
10	Yverdon	10	3	2	5	-6	-3.9	11
11	Winterthur	9	3	1	5	-9	-3.2	10
12	Grasshoppers	10	1	6	3	-3	+4.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Luzern	10	4	4	2	+1	-3.8	16
2	Basel	10	4	3	3	+14	+2.6	15
3	Zurich	9	4	2	3	-2	-0.4	14
4	St. Gallen	10	3	3	4	-1	-6.3	12
5	Lugano	9	3	3	3	-1	-3.1	12
6	Servette	10	3	3	4	-2	-2.7	12
7	Sion	9	3	1	5	-4	-3.3	10
8	Grasshoppers	10	3	1	6	-6	-8.3	10
9	Lausanne	9	2	3	4	-2	+2.3	9
10	Yverdon	10	1	4	5	-7	-8.3	7
11	Young Boys	10	1	4	5	-8	+2.4	7
12	Winterthur	10	0	4	6	-15	-10.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.