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Premiership
Referee: J Beaton
Hearts
T U S S U
3–2
Full-time
Kilmarnock
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Kilmarnock
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,0
1,7
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 26%
26%
26%
Points per game
1,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
48%
43%
Both score Ø 50%
57%
43%
Average goals
2,4
2,7
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
10 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 7
6 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hearts 11. · Kilmarnock 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 23 19 3 1 +53 60
2 Rangers 23 14 5 4 +26 47
3 Dundee United 23 10 7 6 +7 37
4 Aberdeen 23 10 5 8 -1 35
5 Motherwell 23 9 4 10 -9 31
6 Hibernian 23 7 8 8 -2 29
7 Dundee 23 7 6 10 -4 27
8 St Mirren 23 8 3 12 -11 27
9 Kilmarnock 23 6 7 10 -12 25
10 Ross County 23 6 7 10 -19 25
11 Hearts 23 6 6 11 -6 24
12 ST Johnstone 23 4 3 16 -22 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. Dec -24 Kilmarnock – Hearts 1–0 30. Oct -24 Hearts – Kilmarnock 1–2 27. Apr -24 Kilmarnock – Hearts 0–0 30. Mar -24 Hearts – Kilmarnock 1–1 2. Dec -23 Kilmarnock – Hearts 0–1

Match report

Hearts Kilmarnock
1–0 E. Kabangu ⚽
J. Wilson
7′
L. Neilson 🔁
↦ C. Halkett
11′
42′
🟨 Robbie Deas
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 D. Armstrong
↦ C. Ramsay
48′
🟨 Kyle Magennis
Jorge Grant 🟨
50′
50′
🟨 Marley Watkins
50′
⚽ B. Wales 1–1
M. Watkins
54′
🟨 Danny Armstrong
2–1 J. McCart ⚽
J. Penrice
58′
3–1 J. Grant ⚽
61′
67′
⚽ F. Murray 3–2
D. Armstrong
68′
🔁 L. Donnelly
↦ L. Polworth
68′
🔁 D. Watson
↦ K. Magennis
L. Shankland 🔁
↦ J. Wilson
69′
Y. Dhanda 🔁
↦ B. Spittal
69′
M. Drammeh 🔁
↦ J. Grant
69′
81′
🟨 David Watson
87′
🔁 B. Anderson
↦ R. Deas
Malachi Boateng 🟨
92′
M. Boateng 🔁
↦ E. Kabangu
92′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Hearts

4-4-2
1 C. Gordon G
35 A. Forrester D
4 C. Halkett D
30 J. McCart D
29 J. Penrice D
7 J. Grant M
6 B. Baningime M
14 C. Devlin M
16 B. Spittal M
19 E. Kabangu F
21 J. Wilson F
Bench (9)
23 L. Neilson
9 L. Shankland
20 Y. Dhanda
37 M. Drammeh
18 M. Boateng
77 K. Vargas
17 A. Forrest
82 G. Taylor
28 Z. Clark

Coach: N. Critchley

Kilmarnock

3-5-2
1 K. O'Hara G
5 L. Mayo D
4 J. Wright D
6 R. Deas D
21 C. Ramsay M
31 L. Polworth M
16 K. Magennis M
15 F. Murray M
3 C. Ndaba M
24 B. Wales F
23 M. Watkins F
Bench (9)
11 D. Armstrong
22 L. Donnelly
12 D. Watson
19 B. Anderson
14 G. Mackay-Steven
25 E. Brown
26 B. Brannan
30 A. Glavin
29 A. Brown

Coach: D. McInnes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,89
🔒
U
3,54
🔒
B
3,95
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,99
🔒
U2,5
1,81
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.