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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Cardiff

U S U S U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 23%

21%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

39%

43%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,78 xG 1,23

47% Possession 53%

17 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 10

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Derby 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	28	17	8	3	+34	+30.4	59
2	Burnley	28	15	11	2	+27	+7.0	56
3	Sheffield United	27	16	6	5	+17	+12.6	54
4	Sunderland	26	15	8	3	+19	+9.3	53
5	Middlesbrough	28	12	8	8	+12	+14.4	44
6	Blackburn	28	12	6	10	+5	-1.3	42
7	West Brom	28	9	14	5	+9	+5.0	41
8	Watford	28	12	5	11	+0	-5.3	41
9	Norwich	29	10	9	10	+6	+6.2	39
10	Bristol City	27	9	11	7	+3	+5.1	38
11	QPR	28	9	11	8	-3	-3.8	38
12	Sheffield Weds	28	10	8	10	-5	-6.0	38
13	Oxford	29	9	9	11	-10	-13.4	36
14	Millwall	28	8	10	10	+1	+5.6	34
15	Coventry	27	9	7	11	+0	+16.1	34
16	Preston	28	7	13	8	-5	+0.9	34
17	Swansea	29	9	7	13	-8	-0.8	34
18	Hull	29	7	8	14	-8	-4.8	29
19	Stoke	29	6	11	12	-10	-15.4	29
20	Portsmouth	27	7	8	12	-11	-13.4	29
21	Cardiff	28	6	10	12	-12	-10.3	28
22	Derby	28	7	6	15	-7	-5.1	27
23	Luton	29	7	5	17	-19	-3.4	26
24	Plymouth	28	4	9	15	-35	-29.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	15	12	2	1	+28	+20.4	38
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Sheffield United	13	9	2	2	+10	+12.4	29
4	Watford	14	9	2	3	+8	+0.2	29
5	Oxford	15	8	4	3	+4	-2.6	28
6	Norwich	14	7	5	2	+17	+11.5	26
7	Middlesbrough	15	7	5	3	+7	+7.6	26
8	Blackburn	15	8	2	5	+7	+3.2	26
9	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
10	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
11	Portsmouth	13	6	4	3	+9	+2.0	22
12	West Brom	13	5	7	1	+7	+4.7	22
13	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
14	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
15	Coventry	13	6	3	4	+7	+12.3	21
16	Millwall	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.7	21
17	Sheffield Weds	15	5	6	4	+2	+1.1	21
18	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+5	+8.8	20
19	Derby	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.4	20
20	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
21	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
22	Plymouth	14	4	6	4	-3	-6.4	18
23	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-2	-4.1	17
24	Hull	15	2	6	7	-5	+1.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+16	+3.9	31
2	Sheffield United	14	7	4	3	+7	+0.2	25
3	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+5	+2.2	23
4	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
5	West Brom	15	4	7	4	+2	+0.3	19
6	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	+5	+6.8	18
7	QPR	14	4	6	4	-4	-7.8	18
8	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
9	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	-7	-7.1	17
10	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.5	16
11	Bristol City	15	3	6	6	-7	-2.3	15
12	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-13	-9.6	14
13	Millwall	13	2	7	4	-2	-1.2	13
14	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-7	+3.8	13
15	Norwich	15	3	4	8	-11	-5.3	13
16	Watford	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.4	12
17	Preston	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.8	12
18	Cardiff	14	1	8	5	-10	-6.1	11
19	Stoke	14	2	4	8	-11	-10.9	10
20	Oxford	14	1	5	8	-14	-10.7	8
21	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	14	1	1	12	-20	-7.5	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.