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Eredivisie

Referee: Marc Nagtegaal

Nijmegen

T T T S U

3–3

Full-time

Twente

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Twente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,3

3,7

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

88%

63%

Both score Ø 69%

75%

63%

Average goals

4,5

3,1

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,68 xG 1,98

60% Possession 40%

8 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 6. · Twente 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+12	+11.0	22
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+14	+6.7	19
3	Ajax	8	4	4	0	+7	+5.3	16
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+5	+6.7	15
5	Groningen	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.7	15
6	Nijmegen	8	4	1	3	+8	+7.0	13
7	Twente	8	4	1	3	+3	+7.6	13
8	For Sittard	8	4	1	3	+1	-4.6	13
9	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.7	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	1	4	-11	-4.1	10
11	Utrecht	7	3	0	4	+5	-1.6	9
12	Heerenveen	7	2	2	3	-1	+7.6	8
13	Volendam	8	1	4	3	-4	-4.6	7
14	Telstar	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.2	7
15	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-6	-6.7	7
16	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-8	-7.1	7
17	Excelsior	8	2	0	6	-10	-7.2	6
18	Heracles	8	1	0	7	-13	-11.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	+6.7	12
3	For Sittard	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.5	10
4	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+7	+6.4	9
5	Groningen	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.8	9
6	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.9	8
7	Heerenveen	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.0	8
8	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.2	7
9	Twente	4	2	1	1	+0	+4.0	7
10	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
11	NAC Breda	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.1	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.4	5
13	Volendam	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.9	5
14	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.4	4
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.9	4
16	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-1	-4.3	3
17	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-2	-4.1	3
18	Zwolle	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.5	12
2	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.3	10
3	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-3	-0.0	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.2	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.1	5
8	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.6	4
9	Ajax	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.0	4
10	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.1	4
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-1	-3.1	3
12	For Sittard	4	1	0	3	-2	-6.1	3
13	Telstar	4	1	0	3	-3	-4.6	3
14	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.1	3
15	Volendam	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.7	2
16	NAC Breda	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.8	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	5	0	0	5	-12	-7.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.