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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Twente

T T T S T

2–2

Full-time

NAC Breda

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,21 xG 0,62

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 14. · NAC Breda 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
2	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
3	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
4	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+2.0	9
5	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.6	9
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
7	Groningen	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
9	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.0	6
10	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-5	-3.3	6
11	For Sittard	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
12	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.8	4
13	Volendam	5	0	4	1	-3	-4.5	4
14	Twente	4	1	0	3	-3	+1.2	3
15	NAC Breda	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.5	3
16	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.5	3
17	Heerenveen	4	0	2	2	-2	+4.0	2
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
2	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.9	6
3	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
5	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
6	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
7	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
8	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
9	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.6	3
11	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
12	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.9	3
14	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
15	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
16	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
17	Twente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
4	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
5	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
6	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
7	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
8	Twente	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
9	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
10	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
12	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
13	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
14	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
16	NAC Breda	2	0	0	2	-5	-5.9	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.