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Eredivisie
Referee: D Makkelie
Twente
S S T T S
3–1
Full-time
Ajax
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,80 xG 0,83
47% Possession 53%
24 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 2
11 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 9
2 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Twente 4. · Ajax 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 4 4 0 0 +12 +7.2 12
2 Feyenoord 5 3 2 0 +14 +10.8 11
3 AZ Alkmaar 3 3 0 0 +8 +3.5 9
4 Twente 3 3 0 0 +7 +2.0 9
5 For Sittard 5 2 3 0 +3 +3.3 9
6 Sparta Rotterdam 4 2 2 0 +3 +0.1 8
7 Go Ahead Eagles 4 2 1 1 +0 -3.3 7
8 Zwolle 5 2 1 2 -1 +2.6 7
9 Heracles 4 2 0 2 -2 -2.3 6
10 Heerenveen 5 2 0 3 -4 -5.8 6
11 Ajax 3 1 2 0 +3 +3.2 5
12 Excelsior 4 1 2 1 -1 -1.6 5
13 Nijmegen 5 1 1 3 -3 -6.4 4
14 Vitesse 4 1 0 3 -5 -2.3 3
15 Utrecht 5 1 0 4 -7 -4.4 3
16 Waalwijk 5 1 0 4 -9 +1.1 3
17 Volendam 4 0 0 4 -8 -3.1 0
18 Almere City 4 0 0 4 -10 -4.6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Twente Ajax
1–0 D. Rots
7′
2–0 S. Steijn
M. Ugalde
11′
13′
🟨 Steven Bergwijn
35′
B. Brobbey 2–1
B. Sosa
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ D. Rensch
46′
🔁 K. Taylor
↦ S. Mannsverk
R. van Wolfswinkel 🔁
↦ M. Ugalde
62′
M. van Bergen 🔁
↦ S. Steijn
62′
64′
🔁 G. Mikautadze
↦ C. Akpom
C. Eiting 🔁
↦ M. Kjølø
72′
N. Ünüvar 🔁
↦ M. Vlap
72′
Michal Sadílek 🟨
75′
75′
🔁 B. van den Boomen
↦ B. Tahirović
75′
🔁 Carlos Forbs
↦ S. Berghuis
3–1 N. Ünüvar
D. Rots
79′
82′
🟨 Jorrel Hato
A. Van Hoorenbeeck 🔁
↦ M. Hilgers
83′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Twente

4-2-3-1
1 L. Unnerstall G
12 A. Sampsted D
2 M. Hilgers D
3 R. Pröpper D
8 Y. Regeer D
4 M. Kjølø M
23 M. Sadílek M
11 D. Rots M
14 S. Steijn M
18 M. Vlap M
27 M. Ugalde F
Bench (11)
9 R. van Wolfswinkel
7 M. van Bergen
6 C. Eiting
10 N. Ünüvar
17 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
19 Y. Taha
24 J. Mesbahi
22 P. Tytoń
16 I. El Maach
41 G. Besselink
39 M. Rots

Coach: J. Oosting

Ajax

4-2-3-1
12 J. Gorter G
2 D. Rensch D
37 J. Šutalo D
4 J. Hato D
25 B. Sosa D
16 S. Mannsverk M
33 B. Tahirović M
10 C. Akpom M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 S. Bergwijn M
9 B. Brobbey F
Bench (12)
3 A. Gaaei
8 K. Taylor
19 G. Mikautadze
21 B. van den Boomen
11 Carlos Forbs
50 G. Misehouy
38 K. Hlynsson
17 A. Salah-Eddine
30 G. Ávila
18 J. Medić
40 D. Ramaj
22 R. Pasveer

Coach: M. Steijn

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,55
U
3,56
B
2,62
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,59
U2,5
2,32
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.