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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

PSV Eindhoven

S S S U S

3–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,2

4,5

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

0,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 60%

100%

19%

Points per game

3,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

88%

75%

Both score Ø 56%

31%

81%

Average goals

3,9

3,7

Scored

3,5

1,7

Conceded

0,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,02 xG 0,82

69% Possession 31%

27 Shots 8

15 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 12

12 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

2 Free kicks against 3

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Excelsior 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	16	0	0	+50	+37.6	48
2	Feyenoord	16	12	2	2	+34	+32.7	38
3	Twente	17	11	4	2	+16	+12.9	37
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	10	3	4	+20	+11.2	33
5	Ajax	16	7	4	5	+5	+6.1	25
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	4	6	+2	-6.2	25
7	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	4	5	+3	-8.0	22
8	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+3	-11.6	20
9	Heerenveen	17	6	2	9	-6	-1.4	20
10	Zwolle	17	5	4	8	-5	-5.5	19
11	For Sittard	17	5	4	8	-13	-1.3	19
12	Heracles	17	5	3	9	-18	-11.7	18
13	Excelsior	16	3	8	5	-5	-7.7	17
14	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-9	-11.2	17
15	Almere City	16	4	4	8	-16	-7.6	16
16	Waalwijk	17	4	2	11	-14	-4.5	14
17	Volendam	16	3	2	11	-22	-11.4	11
18	Vitesse	16	3	2	11	-25	-12.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+20.3	24
2	Twente	9	7	1	1	+7	+6.3	22
3	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.1	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	1	2	+14	+11.2	19
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+4	+7.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	5	1	2	+11	+3.6	16
7	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+9	+7.2	16
8	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
9	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+5	+0.4	11
10	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-9	-6.5	10
11	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	3	3	-3	-0.7	9
12	Excelsior	8	1	5	2	-3	-1.9	8
13	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
14	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-7	-2.4	8
15	Utrecht	8	1	4	3	-7	-5.1	7
16	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-8	-3.4	7
17	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
18	Vitesse	7	1	2	4	-6	-2.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+28	+17.2	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+16	+18.6	19
3	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	1	3	+5	-5.5	16
4	Twente	8	4	3	1	+9	+6.5	15
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	2	2	+6	-0.0	14
6	Zwolle	8	3	2	3	+1	-5.7	11
7	Utrecht	8	3	1	4	-2	-6.1	10
8	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-2	-5.9	9
9	Nijmegen	7	2	3	2	-2	-11.9	9
10	Ajax	8	2	3	3	-4	-1.1	9
11	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
12	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-9	-5.2	8
13	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-6	-1.0	7
14	Heerenveen	9	2	1	6	-11	-8.2	7
15	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	3	3	-8	-11.5	6
16	Vitesse	9	2	0	7	-19	-10.4	6
17	Volendam	9	1	1	7	-14	-12.6	4
18	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.