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Eredivisie

Referee: Alex Chilowicz

PSV Eindhoven

S S S S T

4–3

Full-time

Heracles

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,7

Scored

2,8

3,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 57%

87%

27%

Points per game

2,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

73%

80%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

4,2

4,0

Scored

3,1

1,5

Conceded

1,1

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,22 xG 2,64

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 4

12 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Heracles 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	1	1	+29	+13.8	40
2	Feyenoord	15	11	1	3	+23	+21.4	34
3	Nijmegen	16	8	4	4	+14	+5.6	28
4	Groningen	15	8	2	5	+5	+9.4	26
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	7	4	4	+4	+9.3	25
6	Ajax	14	6	5	3	+6	+1.1	23
7	Utrecht	14	6	3	5	+6	-2.3	21
8	Twente	15	5	6	4	+3	+11.5	21
9	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	2	7	-11	-5.7	20
10	Go Ahead Eagles	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.2	18
11	For Sittard	15	5	3	7	-4	-3.9	18
12	Heerenveen	14	4	4	6	-3	+10.5	16
13	Excelsior	15	5	1	9	-12	-11.1	16
14	Zwolle	15	4	4	7	-17	-14.8	16
15	Volendam	16	3	5	8	-11	-12.8	14
16	Heracles	15	4	2	9	-14	-10.2	14
17	Telstar	16	2	6	8	-8	-8.3	12
18	NAC Breda	15	3	3	9	-9	-6.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	6	0	2	+10	+13.5	18
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
3	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
4	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+10	+3.0	16
5	Groningen	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.2	14
6	For Sittard	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.3	14
7	Ajax	7	4	1	2	+4	+5.3	13
8	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	+5.1	12
9	Volendam	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.4	12
10	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
11	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
12	Twente	7	3	2	2	+0	+6.7	11
13	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	2	3	-6	-3.0	11
14	Heracles	7	3	1	3	+0	-0.3	10
15	NAC Breda	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.1	10
16	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.1	10
17	Excelsior	8	3	0	5	-3	-6.0	9
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+17	+4.9	24
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+13	+7.9	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
5	Groningen	7	4	0	3	-2	+2.2	12
6	Twente	8	2	4	2	+3	+4.9	10
7	Ajax	7	2	4	1	+2	-4.2	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
9	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	1	3	4	-4	-6.9	6
11	Zwolle	8	1	3	4	-12	-11.7	6
12	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.2	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	-4	-8.3	5
14	Heerenveen	6	1	1	4	-4	+1.7	4
15	For Sittard	7	1	1	5	-6	-8.2	4
16	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-14	-9.9	4
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-9	-9.6	2
18	Volendam	8	0	2	6	-14	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.