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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Excelsior

T T T T U

0–2

Full-time

Nijmegen

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

61%

82%

Both score Ø 73%

64%

82%

Average goals

2,7

4,1

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,72 xG 1,32

45% Possession 55%

8 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Nijmegen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	29	23	2	4	+42	+29.1	71
2	Feyenoord	28	16	5	7	+21	+25.8	53
3	Nijmegen	28	14	8	6	+22	+8.7	50
4	Twente	28	12	11	5	+17	+25.5	47
5	Ajax	27	11	12	4	+16	+7.6	45
6	AZ Alkmaar	29	13	6	10	+4	+18.0	45
7	Groningen	28	12	5	11	+7	+11.4	41
8	Sparta Rotterdam	28	12	5	11	-12	-4.1	41
9	Utrecht	28	11	7	10	+10	+2.1	40
10	Heerenveen	27	11	7	9	+3	+7.8	40
11	For Sittard	29	10	5	14	-11	-14.8	35
12	Zwolle	28	8	9	11	-15	-17.1	33
13	Go Ahead Eagles	28	7	11	10	+0	-16.8	32
14	Telstar	29	6	9	14	-10	-11.8	27
15	Volendam	28	7	6	15	-18	-23.5	27
16	Excelsior	28	7	6	15	-18	-15.9	27
17	NAC Breda	28	5	8	15	-21	-8.6	23
18	Heracles	28	5	4	19	-37	-23.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	2	2	+23	+17.4	35
2	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+14	+18.6	32
3	Nijmegen	14	8	3	3	+15	+9.6	27
4	Ajax	13	8	3	2	+15	+13.8	27
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	5	2	+10	+13.2	26
6	Twente	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.9	25
7	Zwolle	14	7	3	4	+1	-0.4	24
8	Utrecht	13	7	2	4	+11	+7.1	23
9	Heerenveen	14	6	5	3	+5	+9.5	23
10	Volendam	14	6	4	4	+4	-3.6	22
11	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	4	4	-3	+1.2	22
12	Groningen	14	6	3	5	+9	+6.6	21
13	Go Ahead Eagles	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.3	21
14	For Sittard	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.9	21
15	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-3	+2.6	16
16	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.6	15
17	Telstar	15	3	5	7	-3	-1.5	14
18	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	12	0	2	+19	+11.7	36
2	Nijmegen	14	6	5	3	+7	-0.9	23
3	Twente	14	5	7	2	+9	+10.6	22
4	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+7	+7.3	21
5	Groningen	14	6	2	6	-2	+4.8	20
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	1	8	-6	+4.8	19
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	1	7	-9	-5.4	19
8	Ajax	14	3	9	2	+1	-6.2	18
9	Utrecht	15	4	5	6	-1	-4.9	17
10	Heerenveen	13	5	2	6	-2	-1.7	17
11	For Sittard	15	4	2	9	-10	-14.0	14
12	Telstar	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.4	13
13	Excelsior	14	3	4	7	-13	-11.7	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	14	2	5	7	-8	-19.1	11
15	Zwolle	14	1	6	7	-16	-16.7	9
16	NAC Breda	14	1	4	9	-18	-11.3	7
17	Volendam	14	1	2	11	-22	-19.9	5
18	Heracles	14	1	1	12	-30	-17.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.