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Primeira Liga

Setubal

U T U U

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Setubal Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,0

3,5

Scored

0,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

1,0

3,3

Scored

0,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

7 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 6

1 Corners 7

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Setubal 16. · Sp Braga 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+9	9
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Tondela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Gil Vicente	5	1	3	1	-2	6
10	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Guimaraes	4	0	3	1	-3	3
15	Aves	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Setubal	4	0	3	1	-4	3
17	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-4	3
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Gil Vicente	4	1	3	0	+1	6
4	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+4	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Tondela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
13	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-5	1
18	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Aves	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.