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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Nacional

S U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 48%

25%

70%

Points per game

1,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 12. · Sp Braga 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	21	17	4	0	+32	55
2	Porto	21	13	6	2	+23	45
3	Sp Braga	20	14	1	5	+17	43
4	Benfica	20	11	6	3	+16	39
5	Pacos Ferreira	21	11	5	5	+8	38
6	Guimaraes	21	10	5	6	+5	35
7	Santa Clara	21	8	4	9	+0	28
8	Moreirense	20	6	7	7	-6	25
9	Tondela	21	7	3	11	-12	24
10	Rio Ave	20	5	7	8	-7	22
11	Belenenses	20	4	9	7	-5	21
12	Nacional	20	5	6	9	-7	21
13	Portimonense	21	5	5	11	-8	20
14	Farense	21	4	7	10	-7	19
15	Gil Vicente	21	5	4	12	-11	19
16	Famalicao	21	4	7	10	-14	19
17	Maritimo	21	5	3	13	-11	18
18	Boavista	21	3	9	9	-13	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+10	25
3	Porto	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
5	Pacos Ferreira	10	7	2	1	+8	23
6	Tondela	11	7	2	2	+4	23
7	Guimaraes	11	5	1	5	-3	16
8	Portimonense	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	+0	14
10	Moreirense	10	3	5	2	-1	14
11	Farense	11	3	4	4	+1	13
12	Rio Ave	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Nacional	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-1	11
15	Gil Vicente	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Boavista	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Famalicao	11	1	5	5	-10	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+17	29
2	Porto	10	6	3	1	+11	21
3	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+8	19
4	Sp Braga	10	6	0	4	+7	18
5	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Benfica	10	4	4	2	+6	16
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Famalicao	10	3	2	5	-4	11
9	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-5	11
10	Boavista	11	1	7	3	-4	10
11	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-4	10
12	Rio Ave	10	2	4	4	-6	10
13	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Gil Vicente	11	2	2	7	-9	8
15	Belenenses	9	1	4	4	-5	7
16	Farense	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Portimonense	11	1	2	8	-11	5
18	Tondela	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.