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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Nacional

S T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Maritimo

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Maritimo 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	22	18	4	0	+33	58
2	Sp Braga	22	16	1	5	+21	49
3	Porto	22	14	6	2	+25	48
4	Benfica	22	13	6	3	+21	45
5	Pacos Ferreira	22	12	5	5	+9	41
6	Guimaraes	22	10	5	7	+2	35
7	Moreirense	22	7	8	7	-4	29
8	Santa Clara	22	8	4	10	-1	28
9	Rio Ave	22	6	7	9	-7	25
10	Tondela	22	7	3	12	-15	24
11	Portimonense	22	6	5	11	-5	23
12	Belenenses	22	4	10	8	-8	22
13	Nacional	22	5	6	11	-9	21
14	Boavista	22	4	9	9	-10	21
15	Farense	22	4	7	11	-9	19
16	Gil Vicente	22	5	4	13	-13	19
17	Famalicao	22	4	7	11	-17	19
18	Maritimo	22	5	3	14	-13	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Sp Braga	11	9	1	1	+13	28
3	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+12	26
4	Pacos Ferreira	11	8	2	1	+9	26
5	Porto	11	7	3	1	+12	24
6	Tondela	11	7	2	2	+4	23
7	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+6	18
8	Guimaraes	11	5	1	5	-3	16
9	Rio Ave	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Moreirense	11	3	6	2	-1	15
11	Belenenses	12	3	5	4	-3	14
12	Farense	11	3	4	4	+1	13
13	Nacional	11	3	3	5	-3	12
14	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-1	11
15	Gil Vicente	11	3	2	6	-4	11
16	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-9	8
18	Famalicao	11	1	5	5	-10	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+17	29
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+13	24
3	Sp Braga	11	7	0	4	+8	21
4	Benfica	11	5	4	2	+9	19
5	Guimaraes	11	5	4	2	+5	19
6	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-3	14
9	Famalicao	11	3	2	6	-7	11
10	Boavista	11	1	7	3	-4	10
11	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-4	10
12	Rio Ave	11	2	4	5	-8	10
13	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-6	9
14	Belenenses	10	1	5	4	-5	8
15	Gil Vicente	11	2	2	7	-9	8
16	Farense	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Portimonense	11	1	2	8	-11	5
18	Tondela	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.