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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Newcastle

S T T U U

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,0

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 36%

26%

46%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

35%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 16. · Aston Villa 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	21	5	3	+40	68
2	Man United	28	15	9	4	+23	54
3	Leicester	28	16	5	7	+16	53
4	Chelsea	28	14	8	6	+19	50
5	West Ham	27	14	6	7	+11	48
6	Everton	27	14	4	9	+4	46
7	Tottenham	27	13	6	8	+18	45
8	Liverpool	28	12	7	9	+11	43
9	Aston Villa	26	12	4	10	+11	40
10	Arsenal	27	11	5	11	+7	38
11	Leeds	27	11	2	14	-3	35
12	Wolves	28	9	8	11	-9	35
13	Crystal Palace	28	9	7	12	-17	34
14	Southampton	28	9	6	13	-14	33
15	Burnley	28	7	9	12	-16	30
16	Newcastle	27	7	6	14	-17	27
17	Brighton	27	5	11	11	-8	26
18	Fulham	28	5	11	12	-11	26
19	West Brom	28	3	9	16	-36	18
20	Sheffield United	28	4	2	22	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+23	38
2	West Ham	14	8	3	3	+8	27
3	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+14	26
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
5	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
6	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
7	Leicester	13	6	1	6	+1	19
8	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
11	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+4	17
12	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+2	17
13	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
14	Everton	13	5	2	6	-2	17
15	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-7	17
16	Newcastle	13	4	3	6	-6	15
17	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
18	Brighton	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Fulham	14	2	4	8	-10	10
20	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
2	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
3	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
6	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+7	23
7	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+7	21
8	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
9	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+7	20
10	Arsenal	14	6	2	6	+5	20
11	Leeds	14	6	0	8	-5	18
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-10	17
13	Fulham	14	3	7	4	-1	16
14	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
15	Wolves	15	4	4	7	-10	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Newcastle	14	3	3	8	-11	12
18	Burnley	13	3	3	7	-12	12
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.