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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Farense

S U U U T

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 25%

19%

31%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

34%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

15 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Farense 17. · Tondela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	32	25	7	0	+42	82
2	Porto	32	22	8	2	+38	74
3	Benfica	32	21	7	4	+39	70
4	Sp Braga	33	19	6	8	+20	63
5	Pacos Ferreira	33	14	8	11	-2	50
6	Guimaraes	32	12	6	14	-5	42
7	Santa Clara	32	11	7	14	+2	40
8	Belenenses	32	9	13	10	-4	40
9	Moreirense	33	9	13	11	-9	40
10	Gil Vicente	33	11	6	16	-8	39
11	Famalicao	32	9	10	13	-8	37
12	Tondela	32	10	6	16	-19	36
13	Portimonense	32	9	7	16	-6	34
14	Maritimo	32	10	4	18	-16	34
15	Rio Ave	32	6	13	13	-13	31
16	Boavista	32	6	12	14	-12	30
17	Farense	32	6	10	16	-14	28
18	Nacional	32	6	7	19	-25	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	12	4	0	+20	40
2	Porto	16	12	3	1	+21	39
3	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+15	36
4	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	3	4	+4	33
6	Tondela	16	8	2	6	-2	26
7	Santa Clara	16	6	5	5	+6	23
8	Belenenses	16	6	5	5	-1	23
9	Portimonense	16	6	4	6	+3	22
10	Guimaraes	16	7	1	8	-4	22
11	Moreirense	16	3	10	3	-2	19
12	Rio Ave	16	4	6	6	-3	18
13	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Gil Vicente	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	Famalicao	16	3	7	6	-8	16
17	Farense	16	3	6	7	-2	15
18	Nacional	16	4	3	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	3	0	+22	42
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+17	35
3	Benfica	16	10	4	2	+24	34
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	2	8	-2	23
6	Famalicao	16	6	3	7	+0	21
7	Moreirense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
8	Guimaraes	16	5	5	6	-1	20
9	Belenenses	16	3	8	5	-3	17
10	Santa Clara	16	5	2	9	-4	17
11	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-5	17
12	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-6	14
14	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-10	13
15	Farense	16	3	4	9	-12	13
16	Portimonense	16	3	3	10	-9	12
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-15	10
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-17	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.