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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Benfica

S S S U S

4–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 72%

66%

78%

Points per game

2,2

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

44%

34%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

38%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 19

6 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	32	25	7	0	+42	82
2	Porto	32	22	8	2	+38	74
3	Benfica	32	21	7	4	+39	70
4	Sp Braga	33	19	6	8	+20	63
5	Pacos Ferreira	33	14	8	11	-2	50
6	Guimaraes	32	12	6	14	-5	42
7	Santa Clara	32	11	7	14	+2	40
8	Belenenses	32	9	13	10	-4	40
9	Moreirense	33	9	13	11	-9	40
10	Gil Vicente	33	11	6	16	-8	39
11	Famalicao	32	9	10	13	-8	37
12	Tondela	33	10	6	17	-20	36
13	Portimonense	33	9	7	17	-7	34
14	Maritimo	32	10	4	18	-16	34
15	Boavista	33	7	12	14	-11	33
16	Farense	33	7	10	16	-13	31
17	Rio Ave	32	6	13	13	-13	31
18	Nacional	32	6	7	19	-25	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	12	4	0	+20	40
2	Porto	16	12	3	1	+21	39
3	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+15	36
4	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+12	36
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	10	3	4	+4	33
6	Tondela	16	8	2	6	-2	26
7	Santa Clara	16	6	5	5	+6	23
8	Belenenses	16	6	5	5	-1	23
9	Portimonense	16	6	4	6	+3	22
10	Guimaraes	16	7	1	8	-4	22
11	Moreirense	16	3	10	3	-2	19
12	Boavista	17	5	4	8	-5	19
13	Farense	17	4	6	7	-1	18
14	Rio Ave	16	4	6	6	-3	18
15	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-11	17
16	Gil Vicente	16	4	4	8	-6	16
17	Famalicao	16	3	7	6	-8	16
18	Nacional	16	4	3	9	-10	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	3	0	+22	42
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+17	35
3	Benfica	16	10	4	2	+24	34
4	Sp Braga	16	8	3	5	+8	27
5	Gil Vicente	17	7	2	8	-2	23
6	Famalicao	16	6	3	7	+0	21
7	Moreirense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
8	Guimaraes	16	5	5	6	-1	20
9	Belenenses	16	3	8	5	-3	17
10	Santa Clara	16	5	2	9	-4	17
11	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-5	17
12	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-6	14
14	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-10	13
15	Farense	16	3	4	9	-12	13
16	Portimonense	17	3	3	11	-10	12
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-15	10
18	Tondela	17	2	4	11	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.