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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Benfica

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

75% Possession 25%

20 Shots 3

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 4. · Tondela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
10	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-6	4
12	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	3
15	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Famalicao	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Belenenses	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Santa Clara	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Famalicao	2	0	0	2	-3	0
14	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-5	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.