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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Guimaraes

S T U T U

3–1

Full-time

Estoril

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 34%

33%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

56%

41%

Both score Ø 60%

61%

59%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

20 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 8. · Estoril 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	16	2	0	+36	50
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+23	47
3	Benfica	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Sp Braga	19	10	5	4	+14	35
5	Gil Vicente	18	7	6	5	+6	27
6	Estoril	17	6	7	4	+4	25
7	Portimonense	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Guimaraes	18	6	6	6	+4	24
9	Maritimo	18	6	5	7	-4	23
10	Santa Clara	19	5	5	9	-15	20
11	Boavista	19	3	10	6	-8	19
12	Pacos Ferreira	19	4	7	8	-9	19
13	Vizela	19	4	7	8	-13	19
14	Tondela	19	5	2	12	-13	17
15	Famalicao	18	3	7	8	-10	16
16	Moreirense	19	3	7	9	-11	16
17	Arouca	18	3	5	10	-18	14
18	Belenenses	18	2	5	11	-22	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+12	25
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+18	24
3	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+9	18
5	Boavista	10	3	6	1	+3	15
6	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	-6	15
7	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Tondela	10	4	0	6	-4	12
10	Gil Vicente	9	3	2	4	+1	11
11	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
12	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-5	10
13	Arouca	9	3	1	5	-10	10
14	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Portimonense	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Estoril	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Famalicao	9	1	4	4	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	25
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+11	22
4	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Estoril	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+5	16
7	Portimonense	8	5	1	2	+5	16
8	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
9	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-2	10
10	Famalicao	9	2	3	4	-3	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Vizela	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-8	7
14	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-9	5
15	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-9	5
16	Arouca	9	0	4	5	-8	4
17	Boavista	9	0	4	5	-11	4
18	Belenenses	9	0	3	6	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.