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Primeira Liga
Referee: Rui Costa
Porto
S S S S S
3–1
Full-time
Famalicao
T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Famalicao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
100%
17%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 53%
89%
17%
Points per game
2,8
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
78%
61%
Both score Ø 61%
61%
61%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,7
1,2
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%
18 Shots 6
9 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 1. · Famalicao 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 18 16 2 0 +36 50
2 Sp Lisbon 19 15 2 2 +23 47
3 Benfica 19 14 2 3 +36 44
4 Sp Braga 19 10 5 4 +14 35
5 Gil Vicente 19 8 6 5 +7 30
6 Guimaraes 19 7 6 6 +6 27
7 Estoril 18 6 7 5 +2 25
8 Portimonense 19 7 4 8 -1 25
9 Maritimo 19 6 6 7 -4 24
10 Santa Clara 19 5 5 9 -15 20
11 Boavista 19 3 10 6 -8 19
12 Pacos Ferreira 19 4 7 8 -9 19
13 Vizela 19 4 7 8 -13 19
14 Tondela 19 5 2 12 -13 17
15 Famalicao 18 3 7 8 -10 16
16 Moreirense 19 3 7 9 -11 16
17 Arouca 18 3 5 10 -18 14
18 Belenenses 19 2 6 11 -22 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Famalicao
1–0 Otávio
Fábio Vieira
25′
2–0 L. Díaz
Otávio
37′
38′
🟨 Riccieli
Half-time 2–0
Otávio ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
49′
68′
🟨 Pêpê
M. Taremi 🔁
↦ Fábio Vieira
70′
3–0 M. Taremi
78′
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ L. Díaz
79′
Pepê Aquino 🔁
↦ Evanilson
79′
80′
🟨 Hernán de la Fuente
80′
🔁 Pedro Brazão
↦ Pedro Marques
Mateus Uribe ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
84′
Mateus Uribe 🟥
85′
M. Grujić 🔁
↦ Vitinha
89′
91′
🔁 Bernardo Silva
↦ C. Pickel
91′
Riccieli 3–1
Bruno Rodrigues
95′
🔁 Amarildo
↦ Riccieli
96′
🟨 Amarildo
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-1-1
99 Diogo Costa G
22 Wendell D
19 C. Mbemba D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
8 M. Uribe M
25 Otávio M
28 Bruno Costa D
20 Vitinha M
50 Fábio Vieira F
7 L. Díaz M
30 Evanilson F
Bench (9)
9 M. Taremi
10 Francisco Conceição
11 Pepê Aquino
16 M. Grujić
1 A. Marchesín
43 João Marcelo
55 João Mendes
70 Gonçalo Borges
29 Toni Martínez

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Famalicao

5-4-1
31 Luiz Júnior G
15 Riccieli D
22 H. De La Fuente D
88 Pêpê Rodrigues M
6 C. Pickel D
10 Iván Jaime M
4 Alex D
7 Ivo Rodrigues D
11 Bruno Rodrigues M
25 Pedro Marques M
9 Marcos Paulo F
Bench (4)
8 Pedro Brazão
23 Bernardo Silva
99 Amarildo
1 I. Zlobin

Coach: Rui Pedro Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,21
U
6,36
B
13,01
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,52
U2,5
2,48
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Rui Costa · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.