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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Belenenses

T U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Estoril

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

38%

Points per game

0,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

33%

38%

Both score Ø 52%

42%

62%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 21

0 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 14

0 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Estoril 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+19	38
2	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
3	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+25	31
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+8	25
5	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+6	22
6	Estoril	13	5	6	2	+5	21
7	Gil Vicente	14	5	5	4	+5	20
8	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+1	20
9	Maritimo	14	3	5	6	-2	14
10	Arouca	13	3	4	6	-6	13
11	Tondela	13	4	0	9	-9	12
12	Boavista	14	2	6	6	-9	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	5	7	-9	11
14	Famalicao	13	2	4	7	-8	10
15	Vizela	12	1	7	4	-10	10
16	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-18	10
17	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-8	9
18	Belenenses	12	1	5	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+7	12
6	Boavista	7	2	4	1	+2	10
7	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Maritimo	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+3	8
11	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-8	8
12	Estoril	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Vizela	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-9	5
18	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
4	Estoril	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	1	4	-3	7
10	Maritimo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-6	3
13	Arouca	7	0	3	4	-7	3
14	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3
15	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Vizela	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Santa Clara	7	0	2	5	-10	2
18	Boavista	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.