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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Porto

T S U S S

3–0

Full-time

Arouca

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

71%

14%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

71%

14%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

2,1

0,7

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

18 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Arouca 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Sp Lisbon	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+11	16
4	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Chaves	7	3	3	1	+2	12
6	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Rio Ave	7	3	1	3	+0	10
8	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	Feirense	8	3	1	4	-7	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	+0	9
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-5	7
16	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Moreirense	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Chaves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Arouca	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-5	4
16	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
3	Chaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.