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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Arouca

U U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

30%

60%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 11

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 11. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	1	0	+24	31
2	Porto	11	7	2	2	+15	23
3	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+16	22
4	Sp Lisbon	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Guimaraes	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Casa Pia	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Boavista	10	5	1	4	-5	16
8	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
9	Portimonense	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Chaves	11	4	3	4	-4	15
11	Arouca	10	3	4	3	-6	13
12	Rio Ave	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Vizela	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Famalicao	10	3	1	6	-5	10
15	Santa Clara	11	2	3	6	-4	9
16	Gil Vicente	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Maritimo	11	1	2	8	-18	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	0	2	9	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+9	12
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+7	10
5	Guimaraes	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Boavista	5	3	1	1	+0	10
7	Famalicao	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Rio Ave	5	3	0	2	+2	9
9	Portimonense	5	3	0	2	+0	9
10	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Arouca	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	Chaves	5	1	3	1	+1	6
13	Santa Clara	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Estoril	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Maritimo	5	0	1	4	-4	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Porto	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Estoril	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Casa Pia	5	3	1	1	+1	10
6	Chaves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Vizela	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Portimonense	5	2	0	3	-2	6
11	Arouca	5	1	3	1	-3	6
12	Boavista	5	2	0	3	-5	6
13	Gil Vicente	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-14	4
15	Santa Clara	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-4	1
18	Famalicao	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.