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Serie A

Referee: F Cosso

Monza

S S S U U

2–0

Full-time

Napoli

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 56%

35%

76%

Points per game

1,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,28 xG 1,15

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 12. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	34	26	5	3	+47	+11.4	83
2	Inter	35	21	3	11	+29	+17.9	66
3	Juventus	34	20	6	8	+24	+6.8	66
4	Lazio	35	19	8	8	+26	+2.4	65
5	Milan	35	17	10	8	+14	+2.6	61
6	Atalanta	35	17	7	11	+14	+3.7	58
7	Roma	34	17	7	10	+12	+6.8	58
8	Torino	35	13	10	12	-2	+4.2	49
9	Fiorentina	34	12	10	12	+5	+5.5	46
10	Udinese	34	11	13	10	+4	-2.8	46
11	Bologna	34	12	10	12	-1	-1.8	46
12	Monza	34	12	10	12	-3	-3.2	46
13	Sassuolo	35	12	8	15	-11	+3.9	44
14	Salernitana	35	8	14	13	-13	-13.0	38
15	Empoli	34	9	11	14	-13	-7.6	38
16	Lecce	35	7	11	17	-13	+0.5	32
17	Verona	34	7	8	19	-24	-7.5	29
18	Spezia	34	6	11	17	-26	-6.0	29
19	Cremonese	34	4	12	18	-28	-10.1	24
20	Sampdoria	34	3	8	23	-41	-13.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Inter	18	13	0	5	+22	+8.6	39
3	Napoli	17	12	3	2	+21	+4.8	39
4	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Sassuolo	17	8	4	5	+4	+1.5	28
9	Udinese	17	6	9	2	+12	+3.8	27
10	Atalanta	17	8	3	6	+7	+5.2	27
11	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
12	Empoli	17	7	4	6	-2	-0.9	25
13	Salernitana	18	6	6	6	+3	-6.1	24
14	Monza	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.0	23
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	18	6	2	10	-12	-5.2	20
17	Spezia	17	4	7	6	-8	-4.9	19
18	Lecce	17	3	7	7	-5	+2.7	16
19	Cremonese	17	3	4	10	-14	-4.6	13
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	+6.6	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Torino	18	8	4	6	+1	+2.0	28
5	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
6	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
7	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
8	Milan	18	6	6	6	-1	-1.9	24
9	Monza	17	6	5	6	-5	-4.1	23
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	+0	-1.7	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	17	5	3	9	-11	-1.2	18
13	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
14	Sassuolo	18	4	4	10	-15	+2.4	16
15	Salernitana	17	2	8	7	-16	-6.9	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Verona	16	1	6	9	-12	-2.3	9
20	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-25	-11.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.