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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Casa Pia

T U S T S

1–3

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

29%

64%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

36%

79%

Both score Ø 65%

43%

86%

Average goals

2,1

4,1

Scored

0,9

2,6

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,00 xG 1,21

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 11. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+18	+17.5	36
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+15	+12.3	34
3	Porto	15	11	1	3	+11	+8.5	34
4	Sp Braga	14	9	2	3	+15	+10.8	29
5	Guimaraes	15	9	2	4	+8	+2.6	29
6	Moreirense	15	7	5	3	+7	+0.1	26
7	Farense	15	5	3	7	+0	-7.1	18
8	Famalicao	15	4	6	5	-5	-5.0	18
9	Estoril	15	5	2	8	+5	-5.8	17
10	Arouca	15	4	4	7	+2	+0.9	16
11	Casa Pia	14	4	4	6	-4	-3.7	16
12	Estrela	15	4	4	7	-6	-5.5	16
13	Boavista	15	4	4	7	-8	-5.7	16
14	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-3	-5.4	15
15	Portimonense	14	4	3	7	-16	-7.0	15
16	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-8	+3.5	12
17	Vizela	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.1	12
18	Chaves	15	3	1	11	-23	-7.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+13	+9.5	24
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.9	17
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+5	+10.2	16
5	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+9	-1.6	15
6	Estoril	7	4	1	2	+12	+1.5	13
7	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+9	+10.7	13
8	Farense	8	3	2	3	+4	-0.8	11
9	Moreirense	7	3	2	2	+3	+0.4	11
10	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	-1	-1.4	11
11	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-2	+3.3	9
12	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.0	9
13	Estrela	8	3	0	5	-4	-3.2	9
14	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.6	8
15	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-4	+0.1	7
17	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.3	6
18	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+7	+6.6	19
2	Porto	8	6	0	2	+6	-1.7	18
3	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+6	+0.0	16
4	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
5	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-1	-3.1	11
6	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
7	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
8	Arouca	7	2	2	3	+3	+1.4	8
9	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
10	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
11	Farense	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.3	7
12	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.6	7
13	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-13	-5.1	7
14	Vizela	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.8	6
15	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-7	-7.3	4
16	Rio Ave	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.2	3
17	Chaves	8	1	0	7	-19	-7.9	3
18	Gil Vicente	7	0	0	7	-12	-3.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.