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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Atalanta

T S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 36%

47%

24%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 56%

47%

65%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,09 xG 1,22

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 9. · Lecce 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+34	+24.9	45
2	Juventus	17	12	4	1	+15	+15.2	40
3	Milan	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.9	33
4	Fiorentina	18	10	3	5	+9	-1.6	33
5	Bologna	17	8	7	2	+9	+4.4	31
6	Roma	17	8	4	5	+11	+8.2	28
7	Napoli	18	8	4	6	+7	+12.2	28
8	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+2	+4.5	27
9	Atalanta	17	8	2	7	+8	+5.5	26
10	Torino	18	6	6	6	-3	+0.0	24
11	Monza	18	5	7	6	-2	-5.7	22
12	Lecce	17	4	8	5	-4	-11.2	20
13	Genoa	18	5	5	8	-4	-2.0	20
14	Frosinone	18	5	4	9	-8	-6.7	19
15	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-7	-5.8	16
16	Verona	17	3	5	9	-8	-7.7	14
17	Udinese	17	1	11	5	-13	-4.2	14
18	Cagliari	17	3	4	10	-15	-6.2	13
19	Empoli	17	3	3	11	-20	-8.6	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	6	10	-22	-18.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+18	+15.2	22
2	Bologna	9	7	1	1	+9	+2.4	22
3	Roma	9	6	2	1	+14	+6.5	20
4	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
5	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.0	19
6	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
7	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	+5.1	17
8	Frosinone	9	5	2	2	+3	-2.3	17
9	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+9	+4.2	16
10	Torino	9	4	4	1	+3	+3.9	16
11	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
12	Monza	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.2	13
13	Genoa	9	3	4	2	+1	-1.5	13
14	Napoli	9	3	2	4	-1	+5.7	11
15	Cagliari	8	3	2	3	-4	+1.5	11
16	Verona	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.0	9
17	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-3	-0.9	8
18	Salernitana	9	1	4	4	-9	-6.5	7
19	Udinese	8	0	6	2	-5	+2.1	6
20	Empoli	9	1	2	6	-9	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+16	+9.7	23
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+7	+6.1	20
3	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+8	+6.5	17
4	Milan	9	4	3	2	+1	-0.7	15
5	Fiorentina	9	4	2	3	+2	-2.6	14
6	Atalanta	9	3	1	5	-1	+1.3	10
7	Lazio	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
8	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
9	Monza	9	2	3	4	-6	-5.9	9
10	Roma	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.7	8
11	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.9	8
12	Torino	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.9	8
13	Udinese	9	1	5	3	-8	-6.3	8
14	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.5	7
15	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-11	-5.1	7
16	Lecce	8	0	5	3	-4	-9.7	5
17	Verona	9	1	2	6	-6	-5.8	5
18	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-11	-4.4	2
19	Cagliari	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.7	2
20	Salernitana	8	0	2	6	-13	-11.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.