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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Milan

S T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Sassuolo

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,8

4,0

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 42%

59%

24%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

59%

65%

Both score Ø 65%

53%

76%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,56 xG 0,49

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

6 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Sassuolo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+34	+24.9	45
2	Juventus	17	12	4	1	+15	+15.2	40
3	Milan	17	10	3	4	+11	+2.9	33
4	Fiorentina	18	10	3	5	+9	-1.6	33
5	Bologna	18	8	7	3	+6	+4.2	31
6	Atalanta	18	9	2	7	+9	+5.4	29
7	Roma	17	8	4	5	+11	+8.2	28
8	Napoli	18	8	4	6	+7	+12.2	28
9	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+2	+4.5	27
10	Torino	18	6	6	6	-3	+0.0	24
11	Monza	18	5	7	6	-2	-5.7	22
12	Genoa	18	5	5	8	-4	-2.0	20
13	Lecce	18	4	8	6	-5	-11.0	20
14	Frosinone	18	5	4	9	-8	-6.7	19
15	Udinese	18	2	11	5	-10	-4.0	17
16	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-7	-5.8	16
17	Verona	17	3	5	9	-8	-7.7	14
18	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-15	-4.7	14
19	Empoli	18	3	4	11	-20	-10.1	13
20	Salernitana	17	1	6	10	-22	-18.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+18	+15.2	22
2	Bologna	9	7	1	1	+9	+2.4	22
3	Roma	9	6	2	1	+14	+6.5	20
4	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
5	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.1	19
6	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.0	19
7	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
8	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	+5.1	17
9	Frosinone	9	5	2	2	+3	-2.3	17
10	Torino	9	4	4	1	+3	+3.9	16
11	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
12	Monza	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.2	13
13	Genoa	9	3	4	2	+1	-1.5	13
14	Cagliari	9	3	3	3	-4	+2.9	12
15	Napoli	9	3	2	4	-1	+5.7	11
16	Udinese	9	1	6	2	-2	+2.2	9
17	Verona	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.0	9
18	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-3	-0.9	8
19	Salernitana	9	1	4	4	-9	-6.5	7
20	Empoli	9	1	2	6	-9	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+16	+9.7	23
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+7	+6.1	20
3	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+8	+6.5	17
4	Milan	9	4	3	2	+1	-0.7	15
5	Fiorentina	9	4	2	3	+2	-2.6	14
6	Atalanta	9	3	1	5	-1	+1.3	10
7	Lazio	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
8	Bologna	9	1	6	2	-3	+1.9	9
9	Monza	9	2	3	4	-6	-5.9	9
10	Roma	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.7	8
11	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.9	8
12	Torino	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.9	8
13	Udinese	9	1	5	3	-8	-6.3	8
14	Empoli	9	2	2	5	-11	-6.6	8
15	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.5	7
16	Lecce	9	0	5	4	-5	-9.5	5
17	Verona	9	1	2	6	-6	-5.8	5
18	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-11	-4.4	2
19	Cagliari	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.7	2
20	Salernitana	8	0	2	6	-13	-11.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.