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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Casa Pia

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Portimonense

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

27%

64%

Both score Ø 55%

36%

73%

Average goals

1,9

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,79 xG 0,80

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Casa Pia 14. · Portimonense 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+14	+12.3	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+12	+10.4	28
3	Porto	12	9	1	2	+10	+7.0	28
4	Sp Braga	11	7	2	2	+12	+6.2	23
5	Guimaraes	12	7	1	4	+6	+2.7	22
6	Moreirense	11	6	2	3	+4	-0.1	20
7	Farense	12	5	1	6	+4	-3.4	16
8	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	-2	-4.5	16
9	Boavista	11	4	3	4	-1	-5.1	15
10	Portimonense	11	4	2	5	-12	-6.2	14
11	Estrela	12	3	3	6	-5	-2.8	12
12	Gil Vicente	11	3	2	6	+1	-4.6	11
13	Estoril	11	3	1	7	-1	-3.8	10
14	Casa Pia	11	2	4	5	-5	-2.4	10
15	Vizela	12	2	4	6	-6	-1.1	10
16	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-7	+2.1	10
17	Chaves	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.0	10
18	Arouca	11	1	3	7	-8	-1.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+9	+7.2	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.9	13
3	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+7	+4.9	12
4	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+8	-2.3	11
5	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+8	+7.6	10
6	Farense	7	3	1	3	+4	-0.3	10
7	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
8	Famalicao	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.4	10
9	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
10	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.8	8
11	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+4	+0.5	7
12	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.3	7
13	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.4	7
14	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	-3	-1.6	7
15	Estrela	6	2	0	4	-3	-0.0	6
16	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	+1.2	5
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-4	+0.8	4
18	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.4	15
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+4	-1.3	13
4	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.4	13
5	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.2	10
6	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-2.2	10
7	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
8	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-9	-4.6	7
10	Farense	5	2	0	3	+0	-3.1	6
11	Famalicao	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.1	6
12	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.8	6
13	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.3	5
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-5	-4.4	3
15	Chaves	6	1	0	5	-14	-5.3	3
16	Arouca	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.6	2
17	Rio Ave	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.6	2
18	Gil Vicente	5	0	0	5	-7	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.