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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Gil Vicente

U U S T T

4–2

Full-time

AVS

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente AVS

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 47%

33%

60%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

33%

40%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,38 xG 1,42

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Gil Vicente 18. · AVS 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
9	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
10	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
12	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
15	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
16	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
17	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
18	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
4	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
5	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
6	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
7	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
8	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
9	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
10	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
3	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
4	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
5	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
7	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
8	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
9	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
10	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.