Gamealyst.com

← Match Finder

Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Nacional

T S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Estrela

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Nacional Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 25%

30%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

41%

37%

Both score Ø 39%

37%

41%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,59 xG 1,05

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 11. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+50	+42.2	65
2	Benfica	27	21	2	4	+43	+39.8	65
3	Porto	27	17	5	5	+32	+24.9	56
4	Sp Braga	27	17	5	5	+21	+14.9	56
5	Santa Clara	28	14	4	10	+1	+8.7	46
6	Guimaraes	28	11	12	5	+11	+10.3	45
7	Famalicao	28	10	10	8	+4	-8.1	40
8	Casa Pia	27	11	6	10	-2	-8.6	39
9	Estoril	28	10	9	9	-5	-13.3	39
10	Moreirense	28	9	8	11	-5	-0.7	35
11	Nacional	27	8	5	14	-11	-7.3	29
12	Rio Ave	27	7	8	12	-15	-17.2	29
13	Arouca	28	7	8	13	-16	-6.7	29
14	Gil Vicente	28	6	8	14	-15	-10.9	26
15	Estrela	27	5	8	14	-20	-15.2	23
16	AVS	28	4	11	13	-23	-16.8	23
17	Farense	27	3	8	16	-21	-19.2	17
18	Boavista	27	3	6	18	-29	-16.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	0	1	+34	+25.6	39
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+22	+18.8	34
3	Porto	13	10	3	0	+25	+22.5	33
4	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	+11	+7.4	29
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+11	+13.4	27
6	Santa Clara	14	8	2	4	+2	+10.8	26
7	Casa Pia	14	7	4	3	+5	-0.7	25
8	Moreirense	14	6	6	2	+3	-0.6	24
9	Nacional	13	7	2	4	+1	-1.4	23
10	Estoril	14	6	4	4	-1	-5.4	22
11	Famalicao	14	5	6	3	+4	+2.5	21
12	Rio Ave	13	5	6	2	+1	-3.2	21
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	-1	-1.2	16
14	Estrela	14	4	4	6	-6	-6.9	16
15	Arouca	14	3	5	6	-7	-5.0	14
16	AVS	14	3	5	6	-9	-10.0	14
17	Farense	13	2	1	10	-13	-5.5	7
18	Boavista	14	1	3	10	-16	-4.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	9	4	1	+28	+23.4	31
2	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+10	+1.6	29
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+9	+14.2	26
4	Porto	14	7	2	5	+7	+2.5	23
5	Santa Clara	14	6	2	6	-1	-2.1	20
6	Famalicao	14	5	4	5	+0	-10.6	19
7	Estoril	14	4	5	5	-4	-7.9	17
8	Guimaraes	14	3	7	4	+0	+2.9	16
9	Arouca	14	4	3	7	-9	-1.8	15
10	Casa Pia	13	4	2	7	-7	-7.9	14
11	Moreirense	14	3	2	9	-8	-0.1	11
12	Farense	14	1	7	6	-8	-13.7	10
13	Gil Vicente	14	2	4	8	-14	-9.6	10
14	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-13	-12.4	9
15	AVS	14	1	6	7	-14	-6.9	9
16	Rio Ave	14	2	2	10	-16	-14.0	8
17	Estrela	13	1	4	8	-14	-8.3	7
18	Nacional	14	1	3	10	-12	-5.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.