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Eredivisie
Referee: R Hensgens
2–0
Full-time
Nijmegen
U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam Nijmegen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 27/26 matches
Win Ø 27%
22%
31%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
41%
62%
Both score Ø 55%
59%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,59 xG 0,71
45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 15. · Nijmegen 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ajax 27 21 4 2 +37 +25.5 67
2 PSV Eindhoven 28 19 4 5 +48 +34.9 61
3 Feyenoord 28 16 8 4 +30 +22.8 56
4 Utrecht 27 15 7 5 +9 +3.0 52
5 Twente 26 12 8 6 +13 +14.8 44
6 Go Ahead Eagles 27 13 5 9 +6 +10.5 44
7 AZ Alkmaar 26 11 7 8 +6 +11.1 40
8 Heerenveen 27 9 7 11 -6 -0.9 34
9 For Sittard 28 9 6 13 -14 -6.0 33
10 Heracles 28 7 11 10 -13 -14.8 32
11 Groningen 28 8 8 12 -14 -9.7 32
12 Nijmegen 26 8 6 12 +2 +1.0 30
13 Zwolle 28 7 9 12 -9 -22.3 30
14 NAC Breda 27 8 6 13 -16 -14.7 30
15 Sparta Rotterdam 27 6 10 11 -7 +0.6 28
16 Willem II 28 6 6 16 -18 -23.3 24
17 Waalwijk 28 4 7 17 -22 -19.0 19
18 Almere City 28 4 7 17 -32 -13.6 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sparta Rotterdam Nijmegen
7′
🟨 Vito van Crooij
0–1 R. Roefs
own goal
33′
J. Ideho 🔁
↦ M. van Bergen
41′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 K. Shiogai
↦ B. Linssen
64′
🔁 B. Önal
↦ L. Lyratzis
64′
🔁 S. Ouaissa
↦ K. Sano
N. Þórisson 🔁
↦ T. Lauritsen
65′
J. Kitolano 🔁
↦ C. Eiting
66′
70′
🟨 Bram Nuytinck
72′
🔁 M. Hoedemakers
↦ D. Proper
74′
🟨 Vito van Crooij
74′
🟥 Vito van Crooij
81′
🔁 L. Olden Larsen
↦ P. Sandler
1–1 N. Þórisson
G. Zechiël
84′
P. Clement 🔁
↦ K. Hlynsson
88′
M. Nassoh 🔁
↦ S. Mito
88′
94′
🟨 Calvin Verdonk
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

4-3-3
1 N. Olij G
2 S. Bakari D
3 M. Young D
4 M. Eerdhuijzen D
5 P. van Aanholt D
10 K. Hlynsson M
6 G. Zechiël M
8 C. Eiting M
7 M. van Bergen F
9 T. Lauritsen F
11 S. Mito F
Bench (12)
18 J. Ideho
19 N. Þórisson
21 J. Kitolano
16 P. Clement
17 M. Nassoh
13 T. Quintero
14 R. Meissen
22 Q. Hoeve
12 B. Reith
15 M. Kleijn
20 Y. Schoonderwaldt
30 K. Reitmaier

Coach: M. Steijn

Nijmegen

4-2-3-1
22 R. Roefs G
19 L. Lyratzis D
3 P. Sandler D
17 B. Nuytinck D
24 C. Verdonk D
71 D. Proper M
23 K. Sano M
10 S. Hansen M
32 V. van Crooij M
5 T. Ouwejan M
30 B. Linssen F
Bench (11)
9 K. Shiogai
11 B. Önal
25 S. Ouaissa
6 M. Hoedemakers
14 L. Olden Larsen
8 A. Darelas
31 R. Janse
1 S. van Gassel
2 B. Pereira
33 Y. Sbai
20 L. Schöne

Coach: R. Meijer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,04
U
3,50
B
3,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,92
U2,5 ✓
1,86
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Hensgens · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.